The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Washington Wizards — 19.5 wins

According to Basketball-Reference, the Wizards franchise originates back to 1961 and last year’s 15 wins were the fewest in all 64 seasons.

What’s the case for the Over?

Miracles happen every day.

And 19.5 is a low bar to clear.

Jordan Poole can’t be as bad as he was for a large part of last season, right? It was not the imagined Poole Party in D.C., however, he did finish the year much stronger than he started.
Kuzma is a certified baller. Even teams as lowly as the Washington Wiz-ards (shoutout Joe House!) can have a baller on the roster. Now if only Kuz hadn’t made that comment about the Pistons.
Jonas Valanciunas is here. J-Val is a professional big man with 12 NBA seasons under his belt. Is he here just to be trade bait? Probably. (The same can be said for Malcom Brogdon, except for the big man part.)
There are several young players to be excited about: Bilal Coulibaly showed promise as a 19-year-old rookie. Saddiq Bey scored 50 points in a game once. (No cap.) And Corey Kispert is a sniper from 3. It ain’t much, but it’s something.
The No. 2 overall pick in the draft, it’s impossible for Alex Sarr to be any worse than he was in summer league… right?

Wizards fans think they are cursed and missing out on a top chance at Cooper Flagg would be more painful than winning less than 20 games again.

What’s the case for the Wiz Under?

They want to be one of the four worst teams in the league to have the best possible chance at Cooper Flagg — simple as that.

The Wizards won 15 games last year and they LOST some of their best players: Deni Avdija, Tyus Jones, Daniel Gafford (who started in THE FINALS) and Delon Wright.
Brogdon is already injured and expected to miss some time. Brogdon would bring stability and table setting to the offense, but that’s out the window for now.
If you happened to watch a Wizards game last year, you’re aware that they were rightfully referenced as glorified pickup games at the Y. This should year should be much more of the same.
Their top draft pick, Alex Sarr, had the worst summer league performance of all time. 9-of-47 shooting. WOOF.

This is what we call tanker’s delight.

Final Wizards prediction: The number is soo low… but it’s not low enough! Under 19.5 wins.

4. Charlotte Hornets — 30.5 wins

Steve Clifford is out (again) and new head coach Charles Lee looks to usher in a new era of Charlotte Hornets basketball.

What’s the Case for the Over?

A healthy LaMelo and Mark Williams would do wonders.

LaMelo played only 22 games last season and just 36 games the season prior. In those 22 games last year, LaMelo scored more than 28 points in half of them (!!). He is a special talent — an All-Star the last time his ankles allowed him to stay on the court for a full season in 2021-22.
Mark Williams one-upped LaMelo by only playing in 19 games last season. But in those 19 games, the Hornets went 7-12, their best 19-game stretch of the season. Williams tallied eight double-doubles and had five games of 15+ rebounds, an area where Charlotte struggled mightily without him, ranking dead last in the NBA.
Brandon Miller shined in his rookie season, a lone bright spot in CLT last season. This here blog had clamored for drafting Scoot No. 2 overall, but we are proud to admit that we (so far) were very wrong. Miller is the real deal. A potential carbon copy of his idol, Paul George.
The post trade deadline Hornets had immaculate vibes. When the hometown kids showed up, Seth Curry and Grant Williams - along with Thunder castaways Micic and Tre Mann - the Hornets rattled off a 4-game win streak and took 5 of 6 games. It was a breath of fresh air that of course had Eric Collins losing his freakin’ mind. Tre Mann looked fantastic in preseason!
Hello Tidjane Salaun! The 6-9 frenchman looked super comfortable in preseason, stretching the floor, knocking down 3’s and turning to the crowd at MSG!? Count us IN.

The Hornets have had a bottom-3 offense two years in a row, but expect that to change drastically if LaMelo can stay healthy. (Charlotte was top-10 the first month of last season with LaMelo.)

Last note: vet’s vet Taj Gibson is here!

What’s the case for the Hornets Under?

The Hornets have had a bottom-3 offense two years in a row.

Teams that struggle to score the ball have a hard time winning games in today’s NBA, straight up.

LaMelo’s ankles are worrisome. There have been too many “fluke” injuries now to think they are all just bad luck. LaMelo is the keys to unlocking this team.
Mark Williams has also had a difficult time staying on the court, playing 62 total games in his first two years in the league. He’s even already dealing with a tendon strain in his foot…
Nick Richards seems like a nice guy and has had some good games and moments, but rest assured he is not a starting center in the NBA. There is not much big-man depth here at all. We love Taj Gibson, but he’s damn near 40!
Could there potentially be a franchise player struggle match between LaMelo and Brandon Miller? They have said all the right things so far, but it’s fair to wonder.

The backend depth on the roster is questionable. And how exactly are they going to stop teams defensively?

But the absolute worst: Ashley ShahAhmadi is no longer the sideline reporter extraordinaire in Buzz City.. le sigh.

Final Hornets Prediction: Sound the Young Surprise Team alarm! Over 30.5 wins.

3. Atlanta Hawks — 36.5 wins

The Dejounte Murray experiment is no more — this is once again Trae Young’s team and Trae Young’s team only.

What’s the case for the Over?

The Dejounte-Trae backcourt was never going to yield results better than mid.

Perhaps now this Hawks team can spread its wings.

Trae is free to run this offense without the your-turn my-turn madness that drove us crazy with Dejounte. Ice Trae Bombs away? YES. We’ll never shut up about his supreme floor spacing and grasp on controlling the reigns of the game.
Jalen Johnson is a power dunking highlight reel who can seriously hoop. Injuries have stunted his growth and thwarted the Hawks at times. The Hawks season went into free fall mode last year as soon as Johnson was down out, missing his scoring and energy immensely.
De’Andre Hunter feels like one of those underrated-overrated players that the consensus can never quite figure out. Probably because he was the No. 4 overall pick, but Hunter is solid defensively and in the midrange.
No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher had some moments in the preseason! Risacher looked comfortable and liked he belonged out there. Has there ever been less pressure on a No. 1 pick?
We know what Clint Capela is at this point, but there is still more to be seen from Onyeka Okongwu, now entering his fifth season. The addition of Larry Nance provides added big-man lineup flexibility and the same goes for fellow ex-Pelican Dyson Daniels from the guard position.

The Hawks kinda have a lot of long athletes who can shoot the rock. We haven’t even mentioned Bogdan Bodganovic heat checks!

Lastly and most importanty, without having their own 1st-round pick, there is no incentive to tank.

What’s the case for the Hawks Under?

Moving on from Dejounte was wholeheartedly necessary, and this team now has more balance, but this roster is lacking for top-end talent that a lot of other teams possess.

If Trae misses any time… he played 54 games last season and the team went 14-14 without him but that was when Dejounte was here to run the show. That luxury is gone.
De’Andre Hunter is averaging 53 games played a season in his five years in the NBA so far. He’s one of those players that just can’t consistently stay on the court, causing instability within lineups.
This is the rare team without a true 7-footer listed. Teams with size are likely to give them trouble.
The wins here have been trending in the wrong direction ever since the Hawks Ben Simmons run to the ECF. Last three seasons: 43 to 41 to 36 wins.

The Hawks were one of the worst teams against the spread of all-time last season.

The spread is different than a win, absolutely — but those are just horrendous vibes to have around.

Final Hawks Prediction: With tanking off the table, let the Hawks fly! Over 36.5 wins.

2. Miami Heat — 44.5 wins

The Jimmy Butler Miami Heat window appears to be closing, but in the past when we’ve counted them out…

What’s the Case for the Over?

His name is Eric Spoelstra.

Spo is one of the best coaches in the league and seems to somehow always find a way to make things work.

Jimmy did show up to media day all business, no hijinks. Perhaps he will take the regular season seriously? He is playing for his next and potentially last big contract.
Bam is probably more important to the Heat as the anchor of the defense. Bam shooting 3s, which started this summer with team USA at the Olympics, would be a boon for this offense has traditionally not had the best spacing.
Jamie Jaquez was a rookie wise beyond his years last season. A jump in his second season would be typical Heat, re-loading from within. Juan Wick is such a great nickname, too.
Tyler Herro is still in South Beach. An unbundant scorer but sub-par defender who has been called out by the big boss Pat Riley, how will Herro respond?
Jovic is worth keeping an eye on. Another potential breakout incoming. Duncan Robinsin quietly had a huge bounce back last season.

A full season of Terry Rozier. Scary Terry immersed in Heat Culture just feels so right.

What’s the case for the Heat Under?

If the Heat get off to a bad start, could Jimmy Butler ask for a trade in a contract year?

Butler is on an expiring contract and everything with Jimmy involves a little bit of tension. That’s just the nature of the beast. His availability and injury concerns are always at play. Pat Riley did not like his comments in the playoffs and Jimmy did not like Riley’s comments on his comments.
Offensively, it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing here. We’re talking about rock-fight possessions occurring on the regular.
Caleb Martin is gone and he did quite a lot for this team, especially in terms of lineup flexibility. The Heat’s run to the Finals two years ago doesn’t happen without Eastern Conference Caleb Martin.
Spo has been threading a fine line with this team for years now, getting them to the Finals not once but twice. But the thing about thread is that it can only take so much.

Last year could be a sign.

They barely made the playoffs as the 8-seed in a down year for the league and the East.

Final Heat Prediction: Spo + highlty motivated Jimmy = Over 44.5 wins.

1. Orlando Magic — 47.5 wins

The Magic are fresh off being a Young Surprise Team, winning 47 games last year all the while playing that catchy song.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Magic are running it back with the same team and with improvements around the edges.

In just his second year in the league, Paolo Banchero was a force to be reckoned with. A 21-year-old All-Star, Paolo is the building block of the franchise, a beast that keeps getting stronger.
KCP has arrived to the House of Mouse. 3 and D is exactly what the Magic needed and it’s exactly what they will get from KCP, who has mastered the art.
Franz Wagner had a really rough go of it shooting from distance last year. He can still do everything else, but if and when his outside shooting returns, the Magic will have the necessary spacing to fully thrive.
Wendell Carter Jr.’s base numbers dropped last season and he still can’t play more than 60 games, but he kept his efficiency and improved his 3-point shooting.
Knock on wood right now, but Jonathan Isaac is… healthy at the start of the season!? Isaac remains one of those Velociraptor-like defenders. Paired with Jalen Suggs, the Magic can suffocate teams.

The Magic took care of business last year against below .500 teams and they have one of the best defenses in the league in the worst division.

It wouldn’t be an Orlando Magic SZN preview without mentioning the thriving chemistry here.

What’s the case for the Magic Under?

The offense can be quite clunky.

Orlando had the No. 22 offense last season.

Paolo is asked to do a lot, especially offensively where it can be an exhausting style of play. He can’t really afford to take possessions off which adds up over the course of a long season.
If Franz doesn’t find his 3-point shot, that throws a wrench into not only this team’s ceiling but what they are capable of achieving on offense on a night-to-night basis.
No more Markelle Fultz? We get it. This team has a lot of guys already and there just wasn’t room. Even so, no Fultz gives us kinda weird vibes.
Teams that are Young Surprise Teams have a tendency to not fair as well the next season… although OKC just blossomed back-to-back. That’s the rarity.

The number is pretty high.

The Magic won 47 games last season and teams will be more ready for them this go around.

Final Magic Prediction: Play the MF song. Over 47.5 wins.

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Season Preview Division by Division

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