The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. San Antonio Spurs — 35.5 wins

Year 2 Wemby not only has a point guard this time around, but he has The Point God to guide him and this offense.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Wemby could be ready to completely take over the league right NOW.

Walking legends early in their career tend to excel to a level that lifts up everyone around them. Wemby, without a doubt, is a walking legend. One of the greats ready to rip through the fabric of the game.
Chris Paul has a ton of point guard miles under his belt and now he’s paired with the greatest coach the game has seen and the greatest prospect the game has seen. There is a reason why CP decided to tie his legacy to Wemby and the Spurs for the twilight of his career.
There is another guard here, too, the exciting rookie Stephon Castle from UConn.
Another vet has also arrived in San An, Harrison Barnes, a consummate professional and big wing — the exact type of player the Spurs needed to level up.
Let’s not be quick to forget the Spurs staples from the last few years: Sochan, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are all still here and their burden and responsibility is a lot lighter these days.

The Spurs record over the last 23 games of last season was 11-12, on pace for 39 wins already.

A 35.5 win total is MUCH higher than last year’s total wins of 22. Vegas seems to know…

What’s the case for the Spurs Under?

For a team that won 22 games each of the last two years, the number is crazy high.

Pop experimented like hell last season and he could very well do the same this season. Pop is playing chess with the longest game for Wemby and this franchise in mind.
Off that notion.. will the Spurs even want to win a lot of games? Imagine if they could pair Wemby with any of the top prospects in the upcoming draft. Gulp.
Devin Vassell has a stress fracture in his right foot and isn’t expected to be back until early November. An ominous sign out of the gate.
It could be noted for every Western Conference team, but the West is absolutely loaded. A gauntlet to the highest degree.

The 3-point shooting here is still a big question.

No. 28 in 3-point percentage last season, will they have enough shooting and spacing?

Final Spurs Prediction: Wemby + Pop + CP3 = Over 35.5 wins.

4. Houston Rockets — 43.5 wins

Looking to build on last season’s breakthrough, Ime Udoka has instilled a systematic change within this organization.

What’s the case for the Over?

The roster is stacked and Ime will have them prepared and hold them accountable.

Alperen Sengun made a leap last year from Walmart Jokic to Target Jokic. Not only did his offensive numbers take a massive jump, but his defense was much better.
Jalen Green played out of his mind at the end of last season when Sengun was out. The key will be getting JG4 to play like that alongside Sengun. When Green scored 34+ points, the Rockets went 9-1.
The No. 3 overall pick, Reed Sheppard, looks like a MF stud. He could be the deadeye 3-point shooter the Rockets need to contend with the best in the West.
The other young potental here is still oozing with talent: Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason. Yeah, this roster is STACKED.
The vet vets are here too, man. Uncle Jeff Green and now even Steven Adams. We haven’t even mentioned $42 million Fred VanVleet who has a career 61% winning percentage.

The Rockets will be be able to play many different styles and have a ton of lineup flexibility.

What’s the case for the Rockets Under?

Historically, it is difficult to repeat as a Young Surprise Team.

The fact that Jalen Green could not thrive until Sengun was out of the lineup is concerning.
Is this a case of there being TOO many guys? There is only so much playing time to go around. Only so many minutes to be had.
Counting on a rookie as your main supplier of outside shooting is the case here and is not exactly recommended. Is Reed ready to stroke it in the big leagues from the jump?
Dillon Brooks always seems to bring the best out of opponents with his style and approach to the game. Instigating the other team does not always yield the best results. Just ask the 2022-23 Grizzlies.

Final Rockets Prediction: Ready for liftoff! Over 43.5 wins.

3. New Orleans Pelicans — 45.5 wins

The Brandon Ingram situation looms, but Zion at the 5 on offense is ready to be unleashed.

What’s the case for the Over?

The Pelicans won 49 games last year and have quietly had a top-7 defense two years in a row. (Yes, that’s real — we triple checked.)

Zion at the 5 running some point-center is a dream ready to come true once again, bulldozing downhill to the rim and bodying opponents into oblivion.
If anything, Brandon Ingram will be motivated to prove everyone wrong and increase his trade value. Trading Ingram could bring in some talent that fits better with the current roster.
Dejounte Murray’s arrival in the Big Easy gives the Pels a true starting point guard, moving McCollum to more off-ball and spot-up shooting duties where he’s comfortable.
Trey Murphy is dealing with a preseason/camp hamstring strain, but when he returns, can we interest you in a flier for Trey Murphy Sixth Man of the Year? Well, he might get moved to the starting lineup because he’s that good.
Jose Alvarado was injured for a large chunk of last season, but in the 56 games that he played, the Pelicans were 38-18. That’s a 56-win pace!! Grand Theft Alvarado’s energy and fight is contagious.

Willie Green’s speech from the play-in game a couple of years ago is one that we still think of any time Willie Green is mentioned.

What’s the case for the Pels Under?

Vibes are important. And the vibes with Brandon Ingram are not great.

Shams has announced that the starting center for the Pelicans is… Herb Jones. We love Herb. (Not on Herb!) But teams with size and a real big man are going to pummel the Pels on the boards.
Trey Murphy already being injured is very ominous. Hamstring strains can linger.
The depth here is depleted, especially the defensive flexibility after losing Larry Nance and Dyson Daniels in the Dejounte trade. Naji Marshall is gone to Dallas as well.
Hate to say it, but Dejounte in Atlanta was not the same player he was in San Antonio.

The thing about small ball is its outdated. There are too many 7-footers with handles and a 3-point shot.

It’s skill ball. It has and will always be skill ball.

Pelicans Final Prediction: We still love Zion but this center-less roster and vibes ain’t it. Under 45.5 wins.

2. Memphis Grizzlies — 47.5 wins

After a lost season in which they dealt with the most missed games due to injury in NBA history, the Grizz look to get back to their winning ways.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Ja, JJJ and Bane is the simple formula for success.

Ja Morant is saying all the right things. Perhaps he is a changed man. What we do know is that when he’s healthy and on the court, he’s one of the games most electrifying players.
Bane had an under the radar season last year, stepping up and doing everything he could with the new players that spawned in around him.
JJJ and Marcus Smart are still the best frontcourt-backcourt defensive duo in the league.
There is a lot of hype surrounding Zach Edey. Big men in the NBA who can make their free throws automatically have a better chance at making it. It helps to have Ja tossing you the rock, too.
The return of Brandon Clarke from injury. And the return of Yuta Watanabe as well!

The Grizzlies path to winning 48 games relies on the strength of their defense.

What’s the case for the Grizz Under?

The biggest predictor of future injury is the history of previous injury and the list here is a lengthy one.

Ja already had a an ankle injury scare in preseason. His style of play is wildly susceptible to injury.
JJJ is already dealing with a hamstring strain… GG Jackson is out at least three months with a broken foot. Vince Williams is out a month with a tibia injury. The season hasn’t even started yet!
Many like to point to the Grizz returning back to where they were two years ago when they won 51 games. But two years ago this team had Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks. Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks were top-3 in minutes played for that team. Just saying.
There is going to be a lot of pressure on rookie big man Zach Edey. And it wasn’t long ago at all that scouts weren’t sure if he would get drafted at all.

For as good as this team has been and is supposed to be defensively, they are pretty thin on the wing.

Final Grizzlies Prediction: This one almost feels too easy, which is scary. Under 47.5 games.

1. Dallas Mavericks — 49.5 wins

Fresh off a trip to the Finals, Dallas brings in Klay Thompson and will have a full season with the trade deadline additions that helped their postseason run.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Luka and Kyrie.

LukaMagic — still as real as it gets and as spectacular as ever. A full season of throwing lobs to Gafford and Lively and now finding Klay for 3. The Mavs were 34-17 when Luka and Lively played together, that’s good for a 55-win pace.
Kyrie has figured his shit out in Dallas. The Big D and next to Luka was the place for him all along.
New scenery for Klay is just what he needed. A fresh start. Two of the all time great offensive facilitators dishing him the rock.
P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Who would have thought that adding a Charlotte Hornet and Washington Wizard was the secret to a magical Finals run. But it’s all about the fit and PJW and Gafford fit like a glove.
Don’t sleep on the subtle additions of Spencer Dinwiddie (again) and Naji Marshall. Dinwiddie can step in and run this offense when needed and Marshall brings an energy and intensity that doesn’t show up on paper.

Luka with Lively and Gafford…

Welcome to LOB CITY DALLAS.

What’s the case for the Mavs Under?

The Mavs are still top heavy.

Not only did Luka have the deep run to the Finals with his crazy usage, but he also had the Olympics this summer.
It’s still Kyrie. You just never know when some shit could go down with him.
Defensively, there are still some concerns. Especially if Klay is washed washed…
Markieff Morris is here… The Morris Twins are OG’s from Bab’s Shit List. Bad vibes there.

It’s pretty easy to forget that the Mavs missed the playoffs and play-in entirely just two years ago.

Mavs Final Prediction: This year, we aren’t betting against The Don. Over 47.5 wins.

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Season Preview Division by Division

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