It’s a special time of the year, folks.

The 2026-27 NBA season is upon us!

That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Utah Jazz — 36.5

The Utah Tank is no more.

The Jazz have made moves (and had lottery luck) to be a relatively competitive team now — with a win total line that’s 14.5 more wins (!!) than the 22 games they won last season.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Utah Jazz have some studs on this roster.

They are a wagon at home and have a bright coach in Will Hardy.

Lauri Markkanen is a previous All-Star and No. 1 scoring option for a Jazz team that was a Young Surprise Team back in 2022-23, winning 37 games with a preseason line of 23.5. This Jazz team has arguably much more talent across the board than that one.
You might have forgotten that Jaren Jackson Jr. is here. When Mike Conley went from Memphis to Utah, the Jazz excelled. History loves to repeat itself.
Do people realize just how much Keyonte George can ignite from 3. Seriously, in three seasons, he has 26 career games with 5+ made 3s. (Michael Jordan had six such games in his entire career.)

No. 2 overall pick Darryn Peterson gets to play from Day 1 surrounded by real NBA talent, something most No. 2 picks do not get the benefit of.

This line is 17 wins higher than last season. Kinda crazy, right? Right!

What’s the Case for the Jazz Under?

Are JJJ, Nurk and Peterson really worth 15 more wins than the 22 the Jazz won last year?

Health is certainly a question for the former All-Stars here. Neither Markkanen or JJJ played 50 games last season. This team looks a lot different without one or both.
Is there enough consistent shot creation and passing? The Jazz don’t really have a traditional point guard or setup man.
Despite the added vets, there are still a lot of young guns on this team looking to make a name for themselves. Can they all mesh?

Who is grabbing rebounds for this team?

Jazz Final Prediction: They are on their feet at the No Name Saloon. Over 37.5 wins.

__________________

4. Portland Trail Blazers — 40.5

Dame is back and Ja Morant is here.

But is this still Deni Avdija’s team?

What’s the Case for the Over?

The star is Deni Avdija a.k.a. Turbo, the engine to the offense who flies up and down the court with reckless abandon.

Dame D.O.L.L.A. is back where it all started and where he reigned for over a decade. You think Dame won’t have some vintage Moda Center takeovers?
Steak said it best: there isn’t a player in the league who needed a change of scenery more than Ja Morant. The Pacific Northwest should treat Ja well here (and that’s not just because we can make Jail Blazers jokes again.)
Donovan Clingan a.k.a. CLING KONG down low. Clingan is good for nearly 2 blocks per game and led the league in offensive rebounding and total rebounds last season.

This team has some lethal defenders in Jrue Holiday and Toumani Camara, offering flexibility and switchability.

What if the Blazers unleash… YANG HANSEN.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The amount of 3-point shooting and spacing on offense. Avdija was 31.8 percent on 3s last season and Ja was a lowly 23.5 percent…

Any lineup with Dame and Ja on the court is going to be at a severe disadvantage defensively. Can they really start both of them together?
The Blazers led the league in turnovers last season by a wide margin. Now they’ve added Morant’s 3.4 turnovers per game career average.
Shaedon Sharpe’s torn meniscus is a precarious start and unfortunately business as usual with him.

Jerami Grant was a main component to the winning here. He’s in Memphis now.

It’s new head coach Micah Nori’s first year as head honcho. Nori was an assistant coach under Chris Finch for the last five years in Minnesota and took over duties in the 2024 playoffs when Finch ruptured his patellar tendon. Nori is on a one-year deal, which is… interesting.

Blazers Final Prediction: Really thought this was going to be an Over, but the turnovers and 3-point shooting questions won’t allow for it. Under 40.5 wins.

__________________

3. Minnesota Timberwolves — 47.5

Minnesota’s favorite son is gone. (Naz Reid.)

But LaMelo Ball joins the wilderness.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Suffice to say, an offense with Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball has the firepower to explode at any moment of any game. Threes galore. Unlimited range. Fast pace, in your face.

They’ve looked good in the preseason. Playing with harmonious fun that you can’t teach.

Any defense with Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert can fill in the gaps. McDaniels has been on the rise offensively, too.
Ayo Dosunmu’s ascension could be very real. He’s a player we’ve always believed in ever since he had Celtics fans in Boston crying literal tears his rookie season. People forget last year in the playoffs, Ayo scored 43 points in a win against the Nuggets.
Jonathan Kuminga, as always, will be out to prove his worth. KUM BUCKET.

No more Julius Randle moody pants.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The frontcourt depth behind Gobert is a glaring concern.

If they lose Gobert for any time… woof. Gobert is 34 and entering his 14th season.

Speaking of missing time, that’s something LaMelo is very prone to do. Prior to last season, LaMelo averaged just 35 games played the previous three seasons.
Say what you will about Julius Randle (and we have all said plenty about Julius PORK), but he contributed to winning basketball here in Minnesota.
The Ghost of Naz Reid may very well haunt this team. From fan favorite to traded…

Vegas seems to believe in this Wolves team less, setting their line a couple wins lower than last few years when the T-wolves went Under*. (*Depends on the line you got but still.)

T-Wolves Final Prediction: The vibes are flowing too much here to not take Over 47.5 wins.

__________________

2. Denver Nuggets — 48.5

Bounced from the first round of the playoffs for just the second time in the last eight years, how will the Nuggets respond?

Last time they responded by winning the whole damn thing.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Nikola Jokic still resides in Denver.

Even though the song of his praises has diminished, make no mistake: The Joker is more than capable of going nuclear. He led the league in rebounds and assists per game last season and averaged a triple-double for a second straight year.

Jamal Murray is still here as well. The Jokic/Murray 2-man game has been in sync for 9 years now.
Aaron Gordon is an imperative piece to Denver’s winning ways and a healthy Gordon would work wonders for this season. Gordon played just 36 games last year and the Nuggets were 26-7 in the 33 games he started.
Cam Johnson struggled mightily last season at the start of his Nuggets tenure. People forget he was a part of the Suns run to The Finals. The Nuggets record last season when Johnson scored at least 10 points was 25-9.

DeRozan is here for the next chapter of his lengthy career. There is not a better player to help your game than Jokic. And DeRozan can help the offense when Jokic isn’t on the floor.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The lower line is ominous. Denver won 54 games last season… What does Vegas know?

The Nuggets could always just coast the regular season, tinkering and getting ready for the playoffs in the more open than usual Western Conference.
Defensively, there are questions, especially amongst the second line. Denver was a bottom-10 defense last season and they didn’t exactly address it this summer.
Peyton Watson’s departure could be more seismic than anticipated. Cutting salary at the expensive of your core players can really bite teams in the ass.

For the bench unit, it seems like the Nuggets are sure going to be relying a lot on Marvin Bagley…

Nuggets Final Prediction: Not paying Peyton Watson is enough to make us take Under 48.5 wins.

__________________

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 61.5

A regular season juggernaut.

A win total OVER machine.

2025-26: Over 62.5 | 64
2024-25: Over 56.5 | 68
2023-24: Over 44.5 | 57
2022-23: Over 23.5 | 40 *Young Surprise Team*
2021-22: Over 23.5 | 24

What’s the Case for the Over?

It’s simply what the Thunder do.

Relentless with their swarming style of play, suffocating opponents on both ends of the court.

SGA has the regular season by the balls. Say what you will about SGA (NBA Twitter has sure said plenty), but he’s unbelievable. A dominant force from start to finish.
J-Dub missed a lot of time last season. And it didn’t matter. At all.
Sam Presti found an absolute gold mine in Ajay Mitchell. His contract is the biggest bargain in the game. Jared McCain was another steal, too. Mitchell and McCain rollin’ off the bench.

7-foot-2 Aday Mara was making it look easy in the preseason. Bennett Stirtz is a rookie sharpshooter.

This is a HIGH win total line and juiced to the Over.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Will they eventually get tired?

Could they put more stake in saving themselves for May and June?

Presti is putting a lot of stock into the rookies that will have to get a lot of playing time.
Will defenses play SGA more aggressively and try to rough him up? We know they are tired of constantly getting cooked by him.
Will the officiating be different this time around? You never know when the NBA will switch it up.

It’s a really high line that could be derailed by a cold stretch.

Thunder Final Prediction: We’re not fading the machine. Over 61.5 wins.

____________________________________

We. Are. Back!

OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

We love this game!