The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Portland Trail Blazers — 21.5 wins

The Process of the Pacific Northwest, the Blazers are the one team of the Western Conference written in pen for tanking this season to “Gag for Flagg.”

What’s the case for the Over?

It’s just 22 wins.

The Blazers managed 21 last year despite being decimated by injuries all season long.

(Games Played last season: Ayton 55, Grant 54, Simons 46, Sharpe 32.)

Scoot will be better — he made strides of improvement last season after a very slow start. A lighter burden and less turnovers would work wonders.
Simons can catch fire and light up Moda Center at any given moment like his predecessor Dame. A 3-point sniper ready to let it fly.
Jerami Grant is still here, getting buckets and collecting paychecks as the only 10-year vet on this roster.
The highest paid Portland Trail Blazer? That would be the self-proclaimed DominAyton. Center is actually a crowded position: Time Lord and the 7-2 rookie from UConn, Donovan Clingan. Clingan kick outs to the perimeter in the preseason looked good.
Shaedon Sharpe showed last season before he got hurt that he’s more than just a lethal power dunker. The advanced numbers don’t like him, but he’s a baller. It’s important to remember he’s just 21 years old and missed his one collegiate year.
The Blazers actually traded for a big wing this offseason in Deni Avdija, who we really like. Avdija is an Iron Man that has improved every year in the league.

The bottom line for the Over is that if the young talent here can stay healthy, it’s just one more win.

What’s the case for the Blazers Under?

His name is Joe Cronin and his calling card is being completely unafraid to unabashedly tank his ass off time and time again.

For three straight seasons, Cronin has put on a WHO HE!? masterclass at the end of the season.
Finishing at the rim is a problem to keep an eye on as both Simons and Scoot really struggled last season. Turnovers for Scoot as well — he averaged a whopping 4.5 turnovers per game after the All-Star break, the most in the league. Not to mention a defense with the undersized backcourt of Scoot (6-2) and Simons (6-3).
The only reason that Chauncey Billups is still the head coach here is because he’s so good at losing games.
Portland is very susceptible to long losing streaks. Last season featured four losing streaks of longer than 7 games.

It’s difficult to imagine a world where Joe Cronin wants nothing more than his best possible shot at Cooper Flagg.

Final Blazers prediction: Had full intentions of going Under, but the number here is just too low. Over 21.5 wins.

4. Utah Jazz — 28.5 wins

Danny will surely want to tank, but the Jazz have make that a difficult task each of the last two seasons with long stretches of competent basketballin’.

What’s the case for the Over?

This Jazz squad plays as a TEAM.

A team connected by selfless players, producing high-assist numbers and good vibes.

Lauri Markkanen, the NBA’s 2022-23 Most Improved Player, submitted plenty of evidence that his All-Star season was no fluke, earning him a $240 million extension this summer. That not only keeps him Utah, but means the Jazz will have an All-Star talent stepping on the court to lead them.
Keyonte George shined in the latter half of his rookie season en route to a first-team All-Rookie selection. George had eight games of making at least five 3s, highlighed by drilling nine 3-pointers against the Warriors in mid-February. NINE. Patty Mills 14-year experience is now here to help guide the way.
Even with Keyonte’s emergence, Collin Sexton’s numbers still increased across the board with a bigger role and more responsibility.
John Collins is fresh off his best 3-point shooting and rebounding season since 2020-21 after seeing his numbers steadily decline in ATL. A new start in Utah treated him well.
Utah has a defensive anchor in Walker Kessler, averaging over 2.3 blocks in each of his first two seasons in the league, No. 6 in total blocks a year ago.

There is a potential high-octane top-10 offense lurking here that head coach Will Hardy is capable of unlocking if Danny will let him.

What’s the case for the Jazz Under?

The boss and CEO of basketball operations, Danny Ainge, will prefer not to pile up wins, knowing a top shot at landing Cooper Flagg is best for the future of the franchise.

The Western Conference is so loaded that the Jazz might be relegated to looking more like the end-of-the-season Jazz sooner than usual.
Speaking of, over the last two seasons the Jazz have a combined post-trade deadline record of just 13-41. That’s Danny pulling the plug.
It’s already safe to say that Will Hardy is a fine NBA coach, but Danny might encourage him to lean more on the youngin’s and focus all the way on player development from the jump.
Giving the keys to the offense to a second year player in Keyonte already speaks to that. Keyonte is good, but where does he rank among the league’s starting point guards? (One piece from The Athletic ranked the Jazz’s point guard depth as dead last in the NBA.)

If you remove last year’s crazy hot streak from December to January where the Jazz won 6 in a row and 12 of 14 games — their season as a whole looks a lot less positive. Yes, that’s the case for all teams if you remove their best stretch, but even more so for this team.

Final Jazz Prediction: Danny is dreaming of Coop as you read this. Under 28.5 wins.

3. Denver Nuggets — 51.5 wins

The most stout 2-man game in the league still resides a mile high, but KCP is gone to Disney and Westbrook is here…

What’s the case for the Over?

It’s what the Nuggets do.

Jokic and Michael Malone have cashed the Over each of the last seven years save for the shortened Covid season of 2019-20. And they’ve been over this number two years in a row.

A motivated Jokic after the Nuggets embarrassing meltdown in Game 7 vs. the T-Wolves is a scary thought. Both Jokic and Murray will want to make up for the Olympics, too. Murray got paid, so that component is settled.
The harmonious 2-man game between the Joker and the Blue Arrow is something we’ll always rave about here. A special connection that speaks louder than any stats on paper.
Aaron Gordon and MPJ are playing for their next contracts. Gordon has shot over 60 percent on 2s ever since he joined the Nuggets. MPJ has shot at least 40 percent from 3 every season in the league and played a by far career-high 81 games last season.
Russell Westbrook is a polarizing choice. But we know Jokic makes everyone better. And perhaps Westbrook’s energy will invigorate and fire up Jamal? They will utilize Westbrook’s motor. And did… did Westbrook’s jumper look different and smoother in the preseason??
The youngin’s here have all shown their potential. Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther have a big opportunity ahead.

The arrival of Dario Saric brings some added flexibility to the reserve unit that was bottom-5 last year in points per game. Plenty of room to improve and grow there.

What’s the case for the Nuggets Under?

The Nuggets are fully aware that the true test doesn’t come until the playoffs.

The goal is getting to the postseason healthy and ready to roll.

Jokic is racking up the basketball miles, coming off the Olympics and all the travel miles with the preseason trip to Abu Dhabi.
Jamal Murray in the Olympics looked… broken. It was a continuation of what we saw at times last season.
Russell Westbrook in the Year 2024 of our basketball gods!? Have they seen how unplayable he is at the end of games and especially in the playoffs!?
It’s no secret that Michael Malone has generally been a head coach quite reluctant to play young guys a lot of minutes, but he’s really got no other options with this roster. Calvin Booth has forced Malone’s hand. (Booth was probably forced by the penny pinching Kroenke’s.)

The Nuggets were tied for the fewest wins by 10+ points last season. Not exactly the signs of a juggernaught.

Final Nuggets Prediction: Really hate to bet against Jokic, but 48-50 wins feels like the outcome. Under 51.5 wins.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves — 52.5 wins

KAT was once a lone wolf howling into the Minnesota night, but the T-Wolves have officially moved on from him (and his substantial contract).

What’s the case for the Over?

His name is Anthony Edwards.

And strong defensive teams fare very well to the Over.

Ant-Man has been declared NEXT for a little while now — but last season, especially in the playoffs, Ant elevated to that special level reserved for walking legends. The KAT trade makes it clear: this franchise belongs solely to Anthony Edwards. How high will Ant fly this season?
The KAT trade also brings in a dog. Say what you will about Julius Randle in the playoffs (we sure have, too), but Randle is a winning player in the regular season. In five seasons in New York, Randle led the Knicks to the playoffs three times. The same number of Knicks trips to the playoffs in the previous 15 seasons. FIFTEEN.
Let’s not forget about NAZ REID. No more KAT also clears a path for more Naz Reid minutes, the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year.
Gobert will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Is this an every season occurance now? Yes. Does he still have a bad taste in his mouth from Luka’s game-winner and subsequent shit-talk yelling in his face AND getting benched in the Olympics? YES.
Rookie Rob Dillingham looked mighty fine in the preseason. He’s quick and his jumper is smooth. Preseason must be taken with a grain of salt, but still, you’d rather good than bad.

Chris Finch has a bit more depth now with Donte DiVincenzo’s shooting from the guard position. DVV’s capable ball-handling alleviates some of the pressure on Dillingham from the jump. (Did you see Big Ragu talking shit in the preseason!?)

Finch is a solid head coach who maximizes the talent on his roster.

What’s the case for the T-Wolves Under?

There is a big risk in changing the winning formula from last season.

The spacing and runway for Ant to get downhill with a Randle-Gobert frontcourt is not going to be as proficient as it was with KAT’s elite perimeter shooting.
The depth here overall looks questionable. Gone are both Kyle Anderson and underrated Jordan McLaughlin, two key cogs in the Minnesota rotation the last couple of years. Slow-Mo played 69 and 79 games the last two years as a Swiss army knife for a lot of lineups.
A lot is on the shoulders of 37-year-old Mike Conley to run this offense. When Conley is off the floor, the Wolves offense has struggled. And when Gobert is off the floor, the defense takes a dip.
From Bobby Marks preseason article:
- "We don't want to put too much on any young guy's shoulders, but we're going to put a lot on their shoulders," Wolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly told KFAN's Darren Wolfson in August.

Growing pains from the above seem all but inevitable.

Final T-Wolves Prediction: We believe too much in Ant, Finch, defense and preseason shit talking. Over 52.5 wins.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 57.5 wins

The reigning No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the Thunder arrived far ahead of schedule last season and they added to their arsenal of talent this summer.

What’s the case for the Over?

The Thunder have hit the Over in three straight seasons and have been a Young Surprise Team in each of the last two, winning more than 10 games (!!) above their preseason Over/Under win total.

It’s worth repeating: the Thunder have gone over by more than 10 games in two straight!

SGA has blossomed into one of the best players in the league, a proficient scorer whose attack is relentless on a nightly basis.
Chet was indeed the perfect big-man for this team, a shot-blocking menace and defensive anchor and a floor-spacer more than able to knock down the outside shot.
J-Dub is the perfect compliment to SGA and Chet on the wing. A scorer from all three levels, Jalen Williams can get a bucket any time he’s needed and he can just as easily take over a game as the primary option if the game script calls for it.
The offseason arrival of both Caruso and Hartenstein shores up the few weaknesses this roster had, adding another strong defender in Caruso and big-man depth in Hartenstein. The lineup possibilities at Mark Daigneault’s disposal are endless.
The defensive hounds here, man. The Dorture Chamber. Cason Wallace. CHET. And now Caruso. Shoo wee they are going to be a nightmare for teams to face.

Sam Presti is probably not done adding pieces. He still has that treasure chest of draft picks sitting in his office, waiting to be exploited.

What’s the case for the Thunder Under?

The one thing about the Thunder’s run to 57 wins last season is they were the healthiest team in the league.

Negative regression on the injury front would naturally make replicating that success a more difficult endeavor. And Hartenstein is already out 5 to 6 weeks with a broken hand…

Losing SGA or Chet any stretch of time would be costly. The same goes for any team’s two best players, but the Thunder even more so given the magnitude of what they bring to the table.
Giddey was basically unplayable in the playoffs (especially down the stretch), but it’s easy to forget that he was a really big part of running this offense with SGA off the floor. Something to monitor.
The one thing left that the Thunder lack is a true vet’s vet. Caruso has the most experience on the team at 7 years in the league. This is still one of the youngest teams in the league!
58 wins is a really high number in a loaded West. And everybody and their mother seems to be on this Over.

There is always the notion that they will no longer be taking teams by surprise.

The word is out: the Thunder are not only to be taken lightly — they are not to be trifled with.

Final Thunder Prediction: The real storm is still just beginning. Over 57.5 wins.

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Season Preview Division by Division

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