The 2022-23 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season — division by division — asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

5. Orlando Magic — 26.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

His name is Paolo Banchero, the No. 1 overall pick and talk of the town at Summer League in Vegas.

Banchero has the goods to contribute from Day One. His size, strength, court vision, passing, unselfishness and soft touch should boost the Magic offense, exactly what they needed last season.

Franz Wagner was one of the best rookies in the league a year ago and is fresh off more impressive play at EuroBasket. Chances are good that Wagner will see the ball less with Banchero around, but life overall should be easier for him. Banchero should open up a lot.
Still just 23 years old, Wendell Carter Jr. showed progression with his interior scoring, shooting 61.5 percent on 2s last season. WCJ also put up the best defensive numbers of his career. Speaking of defense, after the All-Star Break, Orlando had a top-7 defense in the league.
Markelle Fultz is dealing with a toe injury, but he will be back a lot sooner than he was last season when he didn’t debut until the last day in February. The Magic were decidedly better in the 18 games that Fultz played after recovering from his torn ACL. Hell, Johnathan Isaac might even play basketball this season for the first time since the Bubble (!!).
Jalen Suggs can’t possibly have a worse shooting season than last year when he ranked last in field goal percentage out of 206 players who attempted 200-plus jumpers. Suggs had what looked like a bad knee injury in the preseason, but recent reports suggest he’ll be available for the Magic season opener.
Cole Anthony off the bench could be a nightly spark. He’s probably better suited to be a sixth man gunner. With Fultz currently out, Anthony is going to start. We know he’s not afraid to take the big shots late in games.
Every Young Surprise Team needs a 10-year vet, and Magic mainstay Terrence Ross is still here. The Human Torch can still get lit.
One more: Last year Zach Lowe called Chuma Okeke “a multidimensional thief -- the guy who can crack the safe and drive the getaway car.”

The Magic just struck lottery gold in landing the No. 1 overall pick, so unless they believe in lightning striking twice, another tank job probably appears less appealing.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Magic front office and head coach Jahmal Mosley have shown that they are not afraid of focusing on player development at the cost of winning.

Orlando embraced the tank at the end of last season and it could not have worked out better.

It’s more than fair to wonder if this team will have enough 3-point shooting. The Magic were 28th in 3-point percentage a season ago. As a result, the spacing can also be put into question.
Every young team has its growing pains. Paolo could get overwhelmed by trying to do too much too soon.
Gary Harris is already hurt, a late-August torn meniscus. And as aforementioned, Fultz is already injured as well and Suggs is banged up.
Mo Bamba, now that he is paid to the tune of $10 milly a year, might not play with the same level of fire as last season when he was in a contract year.

If the Magic offense really struggles to score points, it’s going to be difficult to win too many ball games.

Final Prediction: Hammering this Over and all in on the Magic to be this year’s Young Surprise Team and make the play-in. Over 26.5 wins.

4. Charlotte Hornets — 34 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Maybe this is finally the year that Gordon Hayward stays on the court.

When Hayward is healthy, the Hornets have been a good team with a good offense.

New coach (but also old coach) Steve Clifford will try his damndest to eek out every possible win. The word “tank” has not previously been in his vocabulary.
The Hornets were the most unselfish team in the league a season ago, No. 1 in assists per game with pristine ball movement initiated by LaMelo Ball. LaMelo has also proven to be a legit 3-point shooter, 37 percent on 7 attempts per game through two seasons.
Terry Rozier is capable of stepping up and handling more of a workload. The same can be said for Kelly Oubre. In fact, both Rozier and Oubre were top 20 in fourth-quarter scoring last season.
Mark Williams could be the big man that the Hornets have needed for years now. Clifford should be forced into actually playing the rookie seeing as though Mason Plumlee is the only true center in front of him.
Jalen McDaniels and Cody Martin might not be the McDaniels bro or Martin bro that you watched in last year’s playoffs, but they have had their moments.

Thanks to the Jordan brand link, Charlotte has long been rumored to be a Russell Westbrook suitor. Say what you will about Westbrook, but we know that he will play his heart out if he ends up in Charlotte.

What’s the case for the Under?

Over the last five years, Hayward has played more than 52 games just once. In his two years in Charlotte, he has played 44 and 49 games — and he’s never been available down the stretch.

Steve Clifford and LaMelo seem like the most unusual and unideal pair for a head coach and young star. And LaMelo’s already hurt with a sprained ankle suffered in preseason.
Twenty points a game is a lot and that’s what Miles Bridges scored last year.
Steve Clifford’s teams always prioritize defense, but is he going to have the right personnel to pull that off? (If you squint, you can already see Clifford red in the face.)
The young guys — James Bouknight, JT Thor and Kai Jones — rarely saw the light of day under James Borrego, and that is precisely Clifford’s MO as well.

If the Hornets do get Westbrook, that’s probably only going to hinder LaMelo’s development and progression. Not to mention how washed he was last season.

Final prediction: This team is trending downward in a stacked conference. Under 34 wins.

3. Washington Wizards — 35.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Bradley Beal is still in D.C. and now he’s the highest-paid player in the game.

Before last season when he dealt with a wrist injury that required surgery, Beal was a top-flight scorer putting up 30 points per game for two straight seasons. Blue Panda can ball.

The inside-outside combo of Beal and Kristaps Porzingis is intriguing offensively. Porzingis averaged 22 points and 8.8 rebounds in a Wiz uniform, right on par with his Knicks days.
Kyle Kuzma showed progression last season, a newfound board man. Lineups with Kuzma, Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija have serious length on the perimeter and switchable flexibility.
Monte Morris and Will Barton were positive role players in Denver for years.
Corey Kispert can shoot the rock. His average of 35 percent from 3 doesn’t tell the whole story. There were some games where he lit it up.
Johnny Davis can’t be as bad as he was in Summer League. (Right?)

Something about the Wizards second unit actually has a good feel to it. Delon Wright is a capable backup point guard.

This group surprisingly seems like it could have a chance to mesh well, if only because everybody has something to prove. Motivation is an underrated aspect of the game. (See: 2020-21 Oklahoma City Thunder.)

What’s the case for the Under?

After Beal, the longest-tenured Wizard is… Rui Hachiumura. The continuity here is just dreadful.

Enormous contracts of the ridiculous variety do not have the best history of working out well. (In particular for these very Wiz.)
The Wizards have a strong tendency to have a bad defense, posting a bottom-10 mark for four straight years. It’s difficult to see this year being any different.
There is some length on the wing, sure, but who is going to protect the rim?

It goes without saying, but let’s say it anyway. The East is absolutely LOADED: Celtics, Bucks, Sixers, Nets, Heat, Cavs, Hawks, Raptors, Bulls.

Final Prediction: This one feels like it will be especially close for the mediocre Wiz. Leaning to the Under. Under 35.5 wins.

2. Atlanta Hawks — 45.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The fit with new Hawks All-Star guard Dejounte Murray acquired this offseason looked near seamless in the preseason.

Ice Trae (bombs away!) was phenomenal against the Bucks in the Abu Dhabi games. Pairing an elite perimeter defender next to Trae is exactly what the doctor ordered.
John Collins, the longest-tenured Hawk, is still in ATL. He’s an under-the-radar shooter at 38 percent from 3 for his career.
De’Andre Hunter might be ready to make a leap in Year 4. The last time was saw him in real NBA action, he dropped 35 points on the Miami Heat in the playoffs.
Clint Capela is healthy to start the season. It took him a while to get going last year as he recovered from an Achilles injury. Onyeka Okongwu is waiting in the wings as a rim-running threat for lobs from Trae.
A solid and wily vet, Bogdan Bogdanovic is a real go-getter.
Jalen Johnson is supposed to see more playing time this season. He had some moments in the preseason. Rookie AJ Griffin is a fellow Dukie.
Justin Holiday and brother Aaron (the Holiday bros!) are reunited with Nate Mac from their days in Indy.

Staggering Trae and Dejounte can give the Hawks 48 minutes of elite-engine offense.

What’s the case for the Under?

Will Dejounte Murray be cool with Trae taking so many shots per game?

Will an in-season trade take some time for the new pieces to coexist?
Has Nate McMillan already become the later Pacers version of himself?
Kevin Huerter and Gallo are no longer here. Red Velvet and the Rooster were a huge reason why the Hawks took down Philly in the playoffs in 2021.
De’Andre Hunter might just be who he is at this point: an injury-prone player who is inconsistent on offense.
It seems like this team is going to have to trust in unproven players that Nate Mac has been reluctant to play in the past.
This defense as a whole is still lacking and is there enough reliable 3-point shooting?

The future assets are depleted here for additional moves after trading three future first-round picks to the Spurs for Murray, a hefty price for a win-now move.

Final Prediction: Too many questions in a loaded East for that many wins. Under 46.5 wins.

1. Miami Heat — 49 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

#HEATCULTURE is as real as it gets.

Spo is one of the best coaches in the league.
Jimmy Butler’s sheer will and determination will carry the Heat to wins.
Kyle Lowry missed a lot of time last season due to personal reasons. Jimmy and Bam missed time, too. Yet the Heat still won 53 games last season despite Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry combining to miss 70 games.
Tyler Herro, fresh off winning Sixth Man of the Year, appears to be brimming with confidence, ready for the moment.
Bam vowed to work on his offensive game after the playoffs. He’s an automatic Defensive Player of the Year candidate and as versatile on that end as anybody.
This is the first time that Victor Oladipo has been in training camp and the preseason in four years.
Duncan Robinson is ready to put last year’s subpar season behind him. His shot was back in the preseason.
New ballers always emerge here. Did you see Jamal Cain and Jamaree Bouyea in the preseason? (WHO HE!?) First-round pick Nikola Jovic looks like a big with a nice shot.

Never count out Pat Riley from finding a way to make another win-now move. A trade for old boy Jae Crowder would bolster the defense and overall fortitude.

What’s the case for the Under?

P.J. Tucker is gone and he meant a lot to this team, especially from a lineup flexibility and defensive standpoint.

The availability concerns here are real: Jimmy, Bam and Lowry always miss time. Even Herro was hurt in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Lowry is 36 years old now with a lot of point guard miles under his belt. This is Year 17 for him.
If Herro is indeed moved to the starting lineup, the second unit will miss his scoring spark.
The shooting and spacing are not exactly supreme, another area where Tucker will be missed.
No more Vice jerseys is a huge thumbs down. (But the new city edition ones still look cool.)

Last season’s turmoil between Jimmy and Spo and Haslem could resurface.

Final Prediction: Other teams in the East got decidedly better, but the Heat did not. Under 49 wins.

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2022-23 Division Season Previews

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