The 2022-23 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season — division by division — asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

5. San Antonio Spurs — 23.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

It always has to be said: Where there is a Pop, there is a way.

Over the last 24 seasons, the Spurs have hit the Over on their preseason win total 18 times, including three out of the last four. San Antonio has overachieved each of the last two seasons, making the play-in tournament twice.

The Spurs previous lone All-Star in Dejounte Murray is gone, yes, but the other four Spurs starters from the play-in game are still here: Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Josh Primo and Jakob Poeltl.
Johnson could be primed to make the leap in Year 4 with a lot more usage and opportunity.
Devin Vassell (an underrated power dunker!) made strides last season. Remember when he drained seven 3-pointers in the play-in vs. the Pelicans?!
This team does have some vets with something to prove: Josh Richardson (on his fifth team in five years) and also the forever-injured-but-he-actually-played-last-season Zach Collins.
Tre Jones and Josh Primo flashed some promising potential at the end of last season.
Poeltl gets dunked on all the time, but he has also finished top 10 in total blocks three seasons in a row.

KOC has described No. 9 overall pick Jeremy Sochan as “an athletic two-way player capable of defending all five positions.” Dude looks like Dennis Rodman out there. Love that.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Spurs lost their best player in Dejounte Murray and they only got future draft capital in return. Murray was the leader of the team and the best player by a wide margin.

Derrick White and Thad Young were both dealt at the trade deadline and both played a part in the Spurs getting to 34 wins last season.
The Spurs did not have a great showing at Summer League, winning just one game. Lottery-pick rookie Sochan didn’t play due to testing positive for Covid while the No. 20 pick Malaki Branham, and the No. 25 pick in the draft, Blake Wesley, both had underwhelming performances. Preseason was not much better. The Spurs went 1-4 with the lone win against the Jazz.
After Doug McDermott and Keldon Johnson, where is the 3-point shooting?
Opposing players lick their chops when they see Poeltl under the basket. Those Poeltl power-dunk posters are momentum shifters.

It sure seems like the Spurs WANT to tank for a shot at Victor Wembanyama. It’s been 26 years since Pop and the Spurs tanked for Timmy.

Final Prediction: History loves to repeat itself. Under 23.5 wins.

4. Houston Rockets — 23.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

You can’t watch the Rockets schedule release video and not think that this team is brimming with Young Surprise Team potential.

In last year’s #2 overall pick, Jalen Green, and this year’s #3 overall pick in, Jabari Smith Jr., the Rockets have an inside-out scoring and defensive punch to throw on a nightly basis. JG4 looked dialed in during the preseason.
Kevin Porter Jr. and Green have an on-court and off-court chemistry together that doesn’t show up on paper, filled with their contagiously bright smiles. The backcourt duo continued to grow and improve playing alongside each other as last season progressed.
Eric Gordon is the perfect vet to guide a Young Surprise Team along. Gordon is the longest-tenured Rocket by a mile, a professional teammate and stand-up dude.
Christian Wood and his occasional bad vibes antics are no longer around. Instead, Boban is here! Boban and Sengun!!
TyTy Washington looked good at Summer League and so did Tari Eason. Washington is a speedster with a nice touch and floater. Eason is a lengthy defender that plays with fire.

There is some familiarity here with Jae-Sean Tate, KJ Martin and Co. playing together for several seasons now.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Rockets are another team that is no stranger to the tank.

Over the last two seasons, the Rockets have won 37 games COMBINED.

To put it mildly, Houston had a bit of a turnover problem last season: 16.5 turnovers per game was the worst number in the league. It’s difficult to have a good offense (and to win ball games) when you are constantly gifting the other team with free possessions.
This is actually a crowded roster with a bunch of guys.
For as much fun as Sengun and Boban will be, there is a lack of established bigs here. That spells trouble defensively if Houston can’t protect the rim.

There is also an overall lack of two-way players. That can make finding the right lineups a tricky endeavor, something that head coach Stephen Silas has already struggled with.

Final Prediction: There’s too much Young Surprise Team potential here. Over 23.5 wins.

3. New Orleans Pelicans — 44.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Pellies started last season 3-16 and turned things all the way around to not only make the play-in but also the playoffs. Now they add Zion, one of the most efficient scorers in the game, an unstoppable force in the paint. And he looks like he’s in the best shape of his life.

Brandon Ingram looks like a hooper that lives in the gym and doesn’t care about anything else.
This team radiates joy and togetherness. They have a nice mix of defensive-oriented guys in Herb Jones and Jose “Grand Theft” Alvarado to add with their supreme offensive talent. They will be able to play so many different styles.
CJ McCollum is a professional vet and teammate and his crunch-time experience and savviness is a necessary ingredient for this young team.
Jonas Valanciunas has transitioned his game to be a modern floor-spacing big, which should open lanes for Zion to steamroll.
Trey Murphy III’s knock-down perimeter shooting. Murph is a long-range assassin. Devonte’ Graham can pull that off, too.
The rookie, Dyson Daniels, is another defensive-minded player. And player that caught our eye this preseason: Seabron.

The Pelicans are DEEP, and Willie Green has proven so far to be a players coach, one who can rally the troops and get the most out of them.

What’s the case for the Under?

The element of surprise will be gone.

There are a lot of guys on this roster who will want to play real minutes. Also a lot of guys who will want the ball in their hands.
Zion’s health is forever a concern. Zion’s free throws are another question.
Honestly, this is toughest team to make a case for the Under…

Final Prediction: This one feels too easy and like a Pure Lock. Over 44.5 wins.

2. Dallas Mavericks — 48.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

It never feels good to bet against Luka. Going against the Don feels like stepping into the octagon vs. a professional UFC fighter. (Just ask the Suns.)

The Mavs did lose Brunson, but he wasn’t a really high-usage player until the playoffs. Spencer Dinwiddie can supplant his role and THJ is coming back from his broken foot.
Christian Wood is in Dallas now, and he’s had some nice preseason performances. The structure of this team could be just what C-Wood needed.
Reggie Bullock had a strong end to last season and a nice playoff run. Maxi Kleber was draining all those 3s against the Suns. DFS most certainly was, too.
A second-round pick in the draft, Jaden Hardy also had a terrific preseason.
Jason Kidd might just be a defensive mastermind after all.
The Mavs still have Theo Pinson, bench-mob extraordinaire.

What’s the case for the Under?

If Luka misses any time, the Mavs will be hard pressed to fill that void. That’s where losing Brunson would especially sting.

The West has reloaded with talent while the Mavs lost their second-best player.
Christian Wood is smiling now, but how long will the good vibes last with him?
Can the defense here really be that good again?

No more Boban :/

Final Prediction: We don’t bet against Luka around here. Over 48.5 wins.

1. Memphis Grizzlies — 49 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Grizzlies have vastly over-exceeded expectations every season with Ja Morant and Taylor Jenkins on board.

They won 56 games last season.

Ja’s superstar ascension has been rapid. Just like with Luka, betting against him doesn’t feel good. At all. We know that the fearless leader of the Grizz stays hungry. And without Ja last season, the Grizzlies still rolled to a record of 20-5.
Desmond Bane shot above 43 percent from 3 for a second straight year, solidifying himself as one of the best 3-point shooters in the entire game. Shooting a high volume of 6.9 attempts per game, Bane is always a threat to rise and fire.
It sounds like Jaren Jackson Jr. will be back sooner rather than later. JJJ’s defense is imperative. The fit between him and Steven Adams more than worked itself out.
Dillon Brooks is in a contract year. Laenor Velaryon’s lookalike, Brandon Clarke got his extension.
Tyus Jones is an extremely formidable backup point guard and game manager. In Ja’s absence, Jones ran the offense with ease last season. The immense value of having a really good backup point guard should not go under the radar.
The Grizz always find guys in the draft: David Roddy and Kenny Lofton Jr. (the Thicc Bros!), Kennedy Chandler and Jake LaRavia.
John Konchar and Santi Aldama will be regular names soon enough.

Getting old boy Jae Crowder back would be a boon.

What’s the case for the Under?

JJJ out to begin the season is not the start you want. He meant a lot to what this team did last year, playing in 78 games and finishing fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Ja’s reckless style of play always puts him at risk for a major injury.
The Grizz went 20-5 last year without Ja, yes, but their depth has been depleted with the departures of De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, experienced vets off the bench that fit in any lineup.
In the preseason, the Grizzlies looked rather disjointed.

Final Prediction: Even though it feels like the Grizz won’t be as good this season, they don’t have to be. Over 49 wins.

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2022-23 Division Season Previews

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Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics - 7:30pm

Lakers at Warriors - 10:00pm - (TNT)

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