The 2022-23 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season — division by division — asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

5. Oklahoma City Thunder — 23.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

We have said it many times before and we’ll keep shouting it from the mountaintops: SGA is so good that you can’t tank with him out there!

The Thunder were 16-19 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup two seasons ago, on pace for 37 wins (!!) over an 82-game season. And his scoring explosion after the All-Star Break last season was truly incredible, averaging 33 points over a 7-game span.

SGA + Josh Giddey + Lu Dort = a formidable foundation with a nice blend of elite scoring, passing and defense. Giddey’s hair and passing are both immaculate. The Dorture Chamber will still lock you the hell up.
There is absolutely zero pressure on this team.
A veteran still resides in OKC. That would be Mike Muscala a.k.a. MOOSE. He has nine years of NBA experience under his belt.
There is some continuity here, too. Darius Bazley and Dort have been with SGA in OKC since day one.
Tre Mann had some games where he really popped off last season, scoring 30 points at MSG and ripping 35 on the Celtics’ top-flight defense.

There are soo many young guys on this team that chances seem good that at least one is bound to really hit.

OKC won 24 games last year, so they just have to replicate that to cash the Over.

What’s the case for the Under?

Sam Presti is certainly no stranger to the tank, shutting down guys with no remorse in each of the last two seasons. Presti probably dreams every night about Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.

Losing prized No. 2 overall draft pick Chet Holmgen to a summer injury suffered at the Pro-Am is an ominous beginning to the season. SGA also already had a Grade 2 MCL sprain and has missed training camp and all of the preseason, but it does sound like he will probably play in the season opener.
Even with Chet, the frontcourt was going to be thin. Now it’s skinnier than Poku.
Three-point shooting here is going to be a problem. OKC was dead last in 3-point percentage last year and did not make any upgrades in that department.
There are probably too many guys on this roster and too many young guys. And having two guys with the exact same name (Jalen Williams from Santa Clara and Jaylin Williams from Arkansas) just seems like a bad idea.

How long can SGA toil away in OKC? Nobody would blame him for asking out.

Final Prediction: The threat of the tank is once again quite severe, but this could be a redux of last season. Over 23.5 wins.

4. Utah Jazz — 24 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Absolutely nobody would see it coming.

This Jazz team is a random assortment of players that were recouped in numerous trades. Sometimes that’s how Young Surprise Teams come together.

For now, Mike Conley is still in Utah, a vet with 15 years of point-guard experience. Conley was an All-Star just two seasons ago in 2020-21. It was as an injury reserve, but he gets the star on his Basketball-Reference page the same as everybody else.
Jordan Clarkson is also still here at the moment. By the time that last sentence was read, Clarkson shot three quick 3s. The same goes for Malik Beasley, really.
Before his season-ending meniscus injury just 11 games into last season, Collin Sexton was playing some really good basketball. Sexton plays with fire and he’s not afraid to go up against anybody.
A La La Land castaway, THT has everything to prove. Speaking of ex-Lakers, Stanley Johnson is a no-nonsense player, he’ll be eager to accept his role. (Update: Stanley Johnson was waived.)
Jarred Vanderbilt established himself as one of the games best rebounders last season. Every team could use a good rebounder.
What if Lauri Markkanen just needed to get to Utah? What if Walker Kessler is really good? A 7-1 shot-blocking monster. Did he really average 4.6 blocks per game in college? Or did everyone make that up? (Well, he did have a preseason game with four blocks against the Spurs.)

Ochai Agbaji and N.A.W. and Jared Butler and Saben Lee. Somebody is taking off. (Update: Jared Butler and Saben Lee have been waived.)

What’s the case for the Under?

The Jazz don’t really want to win.

Danny Ainge is a tanker. And he seems likely to tank this one out like it has never been tanked before. If the Jazz did get off to a good start, Ainge might just trade away whoever is playing well to get top value. Commander Tank is in charge.

First-year head coach alert. Will Hardy just became the new Mark Daigneault of the NBA.
Is the starting center Kelly Olynyk or Walker Kessler? A helluva question to have on the table.
The other centers on the roster are Udoka Azubuike and Cody Zeller. (Update: Cody Zeller has been waived.)

Sounds like a tank rolling on through.

Final Prediction: More than any other team besides maybe the Spurs, the Jazz have the biggest incentive to win the great Tank Wars of 2022-23. Under 24 wins.

3. Portland Trail Blazers — 39.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Dame is back. It’s his 10th season reppin’ R.I.P. City.

Dame DOLLA will be out to prove that his abysmal beginning of last season was all related to his abdomen injury that required surgery. Playing at the top of his game, we know Dame is as lethal as they come.

Anfernee Simons did his best Dame impression last season to an extremely high degree. Chauncey Billups can stagger Dame and Simons to always have a dangerous shooter and electric scorer on the court, always ready to ignite.
Jerami Grant is in Portland now, the perfect prototypical 3 and D player that the Blazers have needed for a decade. Speaking of 3 and D, hello GP2! Gary Payton II will bolster any lineup.
Josh Hart plays with grit and determination that doesn’t show up on paper.
Before last season’s shoulder injury in January that caused him to miss the rest of the season, Nassir Little was making strides, having his best season yet. Rookie Shaedon Sharpe showed off his raw athleticism in the preseason.
Big Nurk is still in Portland, a Blazers staple for six years now.

Any team in the NBA hoping to compete can use some continuity and camaraderie. The Blazers have that backbone in Dame and Nurk, and they have a lot of team-oriented players as well.

What’s the case for the Under?

Defense here has been the biggest issue: 27th, 29th and 29th the last three years.

Even with Grant and GP2 around, a backcourt featuring Dame and Simons on the court at the same time is wildly undersized. GP2 is also currently dealing with a core injury, set to miss a couple more weeks.
The jury is still out on Billups as a head coach. He obviously didn’t have a fair chance last season, but we don’t know if he can maximize the talents of this group, something that Terry Stotts did for years. Some of the coverages and schemes Billups has rolled out so far are not encouraging.
We know that if things go south and go south in a hurry, GM Joe Cronin is not afraid to pull the plug and unabashedly tank his ass off. The Blazers sat everyone last season, and went 2-21 after the All-Star Break with the #30 offense and #30 defense.
After Nurk, the Blazers lack size and do not have another proven big. Trendon Watford had a great showing in Summer League, the Summer League MVP, but at 6-foot-9 and 240 lbs, he’s another undersized player for his position.

Final Prediction: It seems like there is too much uncertainty here. Under 39.5 wins.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves — 48.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The T-Wolves won 46 games last season and they added one of the league’s best regular season players in Rudy Gobert.

Anthony Edwards was so good last season that we couldn’t help but wonder: Is Ant-Man NEXT? A generational talent ready to take over as one of the game’s premier dudes for many years to come. Ant was that good and should continue his ascension.
Meanwhile KAT started to put together the complete package. If you are going to have a Twin Towers two-bigs situation, it’s helpful to have one of the best big-man shooters of all time.
D’Angelo Russell has a new pick-and-roll lob threat in Gobert. And with Ant-Man and KAT on the edge, that’s a lot of weapon’s at D-Lo’s disposal.
The T-Wolves believe that Jaden McDaniels is so good that he was deemed untouchable this offseason. Never forget his incredible Game 6 against the Grizz, scoring a career-high 24 points on 5-of-6 3-point shooting.
Kyle Anderson is an underrated offseason pickup. He will Slow-Mo his way to add positive contributions to any lineup. Bryn Forbes will add shooting and spacing to bench units as well.
Jaylen Nowell is vastly underrated, and a player that everyone will know soon enough. Austin Rivers is in Minnesota now. There are worse No. 12’s to have on the roster.
By all accounts, Chris Finch appears to be the real deal as an NBA head coach.

Let’s not completely write off what the T-Wolves did in that Grizzlies playoff series. Yes, they melted away, but they gained valuable experience and they built those leads.

What’s the case for the Under?

Trading away everything that they did to get Gobert, the Wolves will have a new overall identity this season. We’ll see if it is as good as the last one.

We’ll also see if it takes time to gel.
The double-big Twin Towers lineup with KAT and Gobert seems like such a risk when looking at the price they paid for it. That amounts to a lot of pressure on everybody to win now.
The D-Lo trade rumors have been swirling for a while. He also got benched in crunch time in the playoffs. The biggest reason the Wolves traded for D-Lo (Wiggins and the first-round pick that turned out to be Jonathan Kuminga… gulp) was because he was KAT’s guy. Could be problematic.

The T-Wolves were a Young Surprise Team last year, so we must heed warning that in the next season, Young Surprise Teams usually hit the Under. (Since 2012-13, Young Surprise Teams are 13-3-1 to the Under the following year.)

Final Prediction: The playoffs are another story, but this team seems built to excel in the regular season. Over 48.5 wins.

1. Denver Nuggets — 50.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Without Jamal Murray and MPJ last season, Jokic carried a rag-tag Nuggets team to an improbably 48 wins.

Now the Joker will have his real weapons back.

The harmonious two-man game between Jokic and Murray will be singing once again. Those two have been playing together since 2016-17 and it shows.
Michael Porter Jr. has looked like the same 6-foot-10 knockdown shooter that he was two years ago when he averaged 23.4 points per game along with shooting 55.2 percent from the field and 48.8 percent from 3 on eight 3-point attempts per game over the final month of the season after Murray tore his ACL.
Aaron Gordon as the fourth option on offense? Yes please. Not to mention his defensive versatility.
Bizzy Bones offensive productivity off the bench. Zeke Naji’s back in the mix and looked great in the preseason.
Bruce Brown cutting to the hoop and wreaking havoc in a good way. KCP, a 3 and D specialist.
Ish Smith, a still capable and still quick backup veteran point guard. Speaking of vets, Uncle Jeff’s power dunks are still around.

The Nuggets have hit the Over in every season that Michael (not Mike!) Malone and Jokic have been around.

Jokic is so durable because of the way he plays the game. He stays grounded because he’s a plodder — and that is meant as a compliment. The Joker has never played less than 73 games in a season.

What’s the case for the Under?

It almost feels like the Nuggets are due for regression. Everyone is high on the Nuggets.

Perhaps it takes some time for the new pieces here to get acquainted. This is a team that has preached continuity and togetherness loudly for years, and they just traded two of the longest-tenured players in Will Barton and Monte Morris.
MPJ will always be an injury risk with his back issues. Murray could be that now too after his torn ACL. He’s going to be eased into a normal workload.
Teams with Deandre Jordan on the opening night roster have hit the Under in eight out of the last nine years.

Final Prediction: Jokic with his main dudes is plenty. Over 50.5 wins.

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2022-23 Division Season Previews

TUESDAY NIGHT is officially OPENING NIGHT!

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics - 7:30pm

Lakers at Warriors - 10:00pm - (TNT)

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