The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Washington Wizards — 24.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Absolutely nobody would see it coming.

This is precisely how some Young Surprise Teams are formed. Just look at the Jazz last season and the 2019-20 Thunder, who also had Rooster and Moose.

Jordan Poole UNLEASHED. Poole will have a lot of free rein to fire away. We know at his best he can light it up, which is exactly what he did in the preseason.
Kyle Kuzma has been improving each season and just had his best season yet, averaging 21 and 7. Perhaps he can do even more with higher usage.
Tyus Jones is a professional point guard and was a big reason why the Grizzlies were able to keep rolling when Ja missed games the last two seasons.
Delon Wright is a very serviceable backup point guard. The Wiz should have somebody to set up their offense all game long.
Corey Kispert shot 42.4 percent from 3 last season on high-volume 5.2 attempts per game. Kispert also shot 63.7 percent on 2s.
Daniel Gafford is a dependable player. Gafford plays a lot of games (72 and 78 the last two seasons) and blocks a lot of shots (No. 13 in total blocks last year).
Deni Advija just inked a 4-year, $55 million extension. Advija is a solid defender and an excellent rebounder. He’s only missed six games over the last two seasons.
No. 10 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Johnny Davis didn’t play a lick until the end of the season when he finally showed some much-needed signs of life. Davis remains an unknown quantity. Maybe there is something there?
The No. 7 overall pick in the draft, Bilal Coulibaly from France. Coulibaly might start from the jump, getting a huge opportunity right away. Coulibaly is known for his defense, something the Wiz will need.

As mentioned above, this team has welcomed in some seasoned veterans: Danilo Gallinari (13 years) and Mike Muscala (10 years).

What’s the case for the Under?

New management seems content with tanking and focusing on a full rebuild toward the future.

Chuck ball with Poole and Kuzma feels like it’s going to be a constant theme here.
Defensively… what is the road map to being decent?
This roster is seriously lacking in size and rim protection. The rare team that does not have a single 7-footer listed on Basketball-Reference.
No Beal and no Porzingis means that the Wizards have 46 points per game of missing offense from the jump.
The youngin’s are going to be let loose to see what they have.
Wes Unseld Jr. is heralded as one of the worst coaches in the league. (Seems like a nice guy, though!)

Every season has teams that are punching bags and the Wizards seem like a likely candidate.

Final prediction: Tyus Jones and Delon Wright made it tough, but we still have to go Under 24.5 wins.

4. Charlotte Hornets — 31.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Two years ago with this same core, the Hornets won 43 games.*

*That’s if Miles Bridges plays this season, which now looks to be in jeopardy…

Last season, Steve Clifford’s big purple dogs never found their way offensively, posting the worse offensive rating in the league after being top 10 the year prior year, a result of LaMelo playing only 36 games and Miles Bridges out for the entire season. But LaMelo and Bridges combined for 40 points a night in 2021-22. If they are both playing, the Hornets offense will have a different dimension to it.
Despite having the worst offense last year, the Hornets were still No. 6 in fast break points and No. 11 in points in the paint. So even without Bridges, there is a road map with having LaMelo running the show for the Hornets offense to improve drastically.
No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller from Alabama. Miller might not have had the best showing at Summer League, but his scoring, playmaking and shooting should help boost this Hornets offense. Miller looked better in the preseason, and you know that we love his power dunking mindset.
Terry Rozier struggled last season when he had to carry the load as the Hornets No. 1 option. But when the Hornets were briefly healthy, Rozier excelled once again, shooting 38 percent from 3 in January (30 percent in all other months). The Hornets need January Rozier.
Gordon Hayward actually played 50 games for the first time in a Hornets uniform. He made it to 50 games exactly. The Hornets were 20-30 with Hayward in the lineup and 7-25 without him. Basically, if Hayward stays on the court, the Hornets have a much better chance to win.
Mark Williams anchoring this defense from Day 1. Trading away Mason Plumlee at last year’s deadline forced Steve Clifford to play Williams more minutes. There is no other true center on the team besides backup Nick Richards. So Clifford has no choice but to give Mark Williams the keys.
P.J. Washington finally got paid, the last restricted free agent to sign in late August. PJW is coming off a career year. People forget he scored 43 points against the Thunder in late March.
The only real offseason free agent acquisition here was Frank Ntilikina. Dennis Smith Jr.’s career was revitalized after Dallas in Charlotte last season. Perhaps the same will be true for Frankie Smokes.

Oh, but there has also been an Ed Sumner sighting!!!

What’s the case for the Under?

The Miles Bridges drama… And the Kai Jones nonsense (they already waived him)…

Not great vibes to start the season. At all.

If LaMelo misses time, the offense will be toast once again.
Hayward is always hurt. Ya just can’t count on him to stay healthy and on the court.
Thinking about this team defensively… can you already see Steve Clifford’s face getting RED?
The Hornets biggest issue was 3-point shooting last season, No. 29 in 3-point percentage ahead of only the Rockets.
Steve Clifford still feels like such the wrong coach for this team.

This win total line is so low that it feels like a trap.

Final prediction: Going off the vibes alone, it’s the Under 31.5 wins.

3. Orlando Magic — 37.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

From the first week of December until the end of last season, the Magic had a winning record of 29-28 and the No. 6 defense in the NBA.

The Magic struggled mightily out of the gate due to injuries. A 5-20 record over the first seven weeks while missing veterans Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris. Having their guys from the jump should make a huge difference.
Coming off his run with Team USA in FIBA ball, reigning Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero could be in store for a big Year 2. Paolo is an absolute beast. He’s only going to get stronger and more comfortable.
Franz Wagner went through a little bit of a sophomore slump at times when the Magic were so shorthanded, but he certainly found his rhythm. He’s still a smooth player who can do a little bit of everything, effective playing both on and off-ball. Having more offensive threats should free him up to excel even more.
Wendell Carter Jr. gets better every season. In particular his 3-point shooting as a stretch big, up to a tick below 36 percent last season, a respectable number for a big who previously did not have that in his game. WCJ also shot a career-high 62 percent on 2s.
The rookies: No. 6 overall pick Anthony Black from Arkansas and No. 11 overall pick Jett Howard from Michigan. Black is known for his floor-general playmaking and Howard for his knockdown shooting.
By drafting Black at No. 6, it’s now or never for Jalen Suggs in Orlando. Suggs played less minutes than his rookie season, but his shooting improved dramatically. He had nowhere to go but up, but he made it happen.
Joe Ingles is here on a to a 2-year, $22 million deal. The addition of Jinglin’ Joe gives Orlando another veteran presence and more 3-point shooting. Ingles has been above 39 percent from 3 in six of his nine seasons.
The Magic re-signed Moe Wagner for 2 years and $16 million, keeping the Wagner bros together. Moe never misses an opportunity to be an instigator, but he’s also a helpful contributor, always playing with intensity.

This group is very familiar with one another and it’s vividly clear that they like each other. That goes a long way toward team chemistry, an absolutely vital component to a Young Surprise Team coalescing.

What’s the case for the Under?

This is still a young team with a lot of dudes.

Sophomore slumps are common in the NBA and a slumping Banchero would be a big blunder for this team.
Injury issues have been a previous concern.
The 3-point shooting here is a question mark. The Magic were No. 24 last year in 3-point percentage after being No. 28 the year before.
The ghosts of Mo Bamba, Bol Bol and Terrence Ross.

As is always the case with young teams, if it goes south, they could eventually elect to tank it out.

Final prediction: We are all in on the Magic being a Young Surprise Team and making at least the play-in. Over 37.5 wins.

2. Atlanta Hawks — 42.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

A full training camp with mastermind Quin Snyder. Snyder is The One to maximize Trae Young off-ball.

The backcourt of Ice Trae and Dejounte Murray coalescing into an unusual and different potent one-two punch.
One (or more) of Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, AJ Griffin or Jalen Johnson take a massive leap. Johnson looked good in the preseason, and he is certainly a leaper on the court. Griffin has smooth handles and plays in control.
A full season of having the dependable and durable Saddiq Bey, who was excellent for the Hawks after the deadline.
The two-way talent within De’Andre Hunter finally blossoms into something really real.
There are some fresh veteran leaders here in Wes Matthews and Patty Mills, both with 14 years of NBA experience under their belts.

The Hawks figured some things out in that first round series against the Celtics last year, really making the C’s start to sweat by the end.

What’s the case for the Under?

There isn’t much depth or firepower on this roster after the top.

The Trae-Dejounte mix continues to be too much of the your-turn, my-turn offense that can be so predictable.
Are the Hawks going to be able to stop teams defensively? That’s usually their crux.
This team is small. It’s a skill ball game these days, yes, but teams with size are going to bully them on the interior.
The Hawks got absolutely nothing in return for John Collins this summer, finally flying him out of the A. It was time to move on after years of trade rumors swirling, but to get nothing for your assets doesn’t help things.

Can the Hawks get rid of the stench of being mid?

Final prediction: We believe in Quin Snyder, but we don’t believe in the Trae-Dejounte fit. Under 42.5 wins.

1. Miami Heat — 45.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

A motivated Heat team that did not get any of the prized possessions of the summer.

The Heat already have a big 3 in Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Eric Spoelstra.
- Emo Jimmy could be out for blood.
- Bam might be poised for another step offensively. The Heat were initiating a lot of offensive sets through Bam in the preseason.
- Spo is one of the best coaches in the league. (If not THE No. 1.)
Tyler Herro will be on a mission to prove his worth after being in trade rumors all summer. Herro belongs in South Beach.
Eastern Conference Finals Caleb Martin for a full season. Caleb Martin in the ECF was absolutely insane.
Duncan Robinson’s resurgence. Dunc Rob found his 3-point shot and got back to firing away. Without Strus, they will need Robinson’s shooting more than ever.
Josh Richardson could turn back into Heat Josh Richardson.
The rookie: Jaime Jaquez. The sophomore: Nikola Jovic. One of these young guys could take off.
The Heat always find guys. Somebody will show up out of nowhere. Candidates include: Haywood Highsmith, Jamal Cane, Cole Swider and our personal favorite: R.J. Hampton.
Kyle Lowry doesn’t want to go out like this.

Every time they are counted them out, they show right back up again. HEAT CULTURE.

What’s the case for the Under?

The usual injury and depth concerns are still very much present with this team.

If and when Jimmy and Bam miss time, the foundation here starts to crumble.
The trade rumors could have a negative impact on Herro. He could try to do too much.
Lowry is 37 with a TON of point guard miles.
There is the possibility that ECF Caleb Martin was a one-hit wonder.
The Heat lost Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, big contributors to their success last season. (Regular season included.)
No more Udonis Haslem. For the first time in 20 years, UD won’t be on the Heat bench.

Miami was the 8-seed last year and got worse on paper while the rest of the East got better.

Final prediction: It’s the Heat. We have to put our trust in Spo. Over 45.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets - 7:30pm

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Season Preview Division by Division

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