The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Portland Trail Blazers — 28.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Absolutely nobody would see it coming.

That’s precisely the case for a lot of Young Surprise Teams. Just think about the Jazz last season.

Scoot Henderson could really be THAT DUDE, having an immediate impact on the game with this speed and strength, getting by anybody to his left or right.
Deandre Ayton — self-proclaimed DominAyton — has everything to prove after being spurned from the desert.
Jerami Grant is a really good two-way player. He can pop off with high usage like he did in Detroit a few seasons ago.
Malcom Brodgon was just the 6th Man of the Year. He’s still in Portland for now. There might not be a better mentor for the youngin’s.
Anfernee Simons has been ascending as a Dame replica for years, especially offensively where his sharp-shooting can take over games at a moment’s notice.
Spring-loaded Shaedon Sharpe is a walking POWER DUNK, ready to ignite the crowd and flip the momentum. Sharpe had a strong finish to his rookie season.
Matisse Thybulle played his best ball in Portland over the last two months of last season. He was actually shooting and making 3s.

There is no pressure here. These boys can play LOOSE.

The Blazers could catch people sleepwalking into Portland.

What’s the case for the Under?

More than half of the roster currently listed on Basketball-Reference has played one season or less in the NBA.

This is a YOUNG team.

Defensively, will they be the same old Blazers? A backcourt of Scoot (6-foot-2) and Simons (6-foot-3) is very undersized. Does that ring a Portland bell?
Chauncey Billups doesn’t exactly have the best reputation as a head coach after two years on the job.
Young teams generally prioritize player development over wins.
Portland could trade Time Lord and Brogdon to further cash in on the assets they received for Dame.
The West is stacked and simply put, the Blazers will be a nightly talent disadvantage.

We know that Blazers GM Joe Cronin is not afraid to shamelessly tank his ass off as he has done each of the last two seasons.

Final prediction: There will be nights where they get smoked, but we are rolling the dice on this being last year’s Jazz. Over 28.5 wins.

4. Utah Jazz — 35.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

A new era of Jazz basketball could not have started better, a perfect blend of a random assortment of castaway players with something to prove.

The Jazz were last year’s biggest Young Surprise Team:
- Utah won 37 games after a preseason win total of 23.5, which they eclipsed on Jan. 14.
- On Feb. 26, the Jazz were still a .500 team and the 8-seed in the West. Utah’s record the rest of the way was 6-14. The plug was pulled and the tank emerged.
Lauri Markkanen, with the highest usage of his career as Utah’s No. 1 option, put up by far and away career-best numbers that earned him a first-time All-Star selection and the NBA’s Most Improved Player.
Walker Kessler is a 7-foot-1 shot-blocking monster who even posted a higher PER than Rudy Gobert and swatted the fourth most blocks in the NBA.
Jordan Clarkson got paid with an extension this offseason. Clarkson is the last vestige of the previous iteration of Jazz basketball.
The Jazz added John Collins for basically nothing (Rudy Gay and two 2nds). He is hilariously the highest-paid player on the team this season.
Three 1st-round rookies are here:
- No. 9 pick Taylor Hendricks from UCF. An athlete with bounce and a 3-point shot.
- No. 16 pick Keyonte George from Baylor. A 6-foot-4 ball-handling guard known for his interior scoring and float game. George lit up Summer League and the preseason.
- No. 28 pick Brice Sensabaugh from Ohio State. A 6-foot-6 tough shot maker.

Will Hardy seems like an excellent players coach, one who maximizes the talent he has available.

What’s the case for the Under?

Teams will be ready for the Jazz this time around.

A full season without Mike Conley, who was an integral part of last year’s early-season success. Jared Vanderbilt, too — and Malik Beasley is also worth a mention.
Despite Walker Kessler’s presence under the basket, the defense here overall was subpar last season, No. 23 in the league.
They got him for nothing, yes, but the fit with John Collins honestly doesn’t seem ideal. Will that mean Markkanen plays more of the 3? He’s best at the 4 or 5.
Will Hardy will probably experiment and tinker with his young talent. Young teams tend to focus on player development with the long game mind.

Speaking of the long game, that’s what Danny Ainge is all about, an acclaimed master tanker.

Final Prediction: Not having Mike Conley at all this time and knowing they have the long game in mind: Under 35.5 wins.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder — 44.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Thunder started to rumble last season, vastly overexceeding expecations as a Young Surprise Team known for being fast and hungry.

The real storm could be on the way.

His name is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Fresh off a 1st Team All-NBA selection, SGA scored the 4th-most points in the entire league, averaging 31.4 a night. He led this team with a calm, poised demeanor and a relentless attack, driving to the basket all night long and living at the free throw line. SGA shot 90.5 percent on 10.9 attempts per game.
This team excelled without a true big man center last season, and now Chet Holgrem is added into the mix. Chet has looked fantastic in the preseason, a much-needed rim protector who can also step out and drain the 3.
SGA with Chet is the balanced inside-outside combo you want. And flanked by Josh Giddey’s passing, Lu Dort’s defense and J-Dub’s do-a-little-bit-of-everything — the foundation here is STRONG.
They have more shooting around them now, too. In addition to Chet, there will be a full season of Isaiah Joe and the newly acquired Davis Bertans, the Latvian Laser.
There is more defense in OKC as well: rookie Cason Wallace is known to be a hound on the perimeter.

With soo many assets and draft picks available, Sam Presti could always swing for the fences, making a big move to really go for it this season.

What’s the case for the Under?

Other teams should be ready for the Thunder this time around.

The element of surprise is gone for Young Surprise Teams the next year.

The overall size and strength is a question. They could use some more beef inside.
It has to be mentioned throughout: the West got a lot better. There are other teams that will have much more of a win-now mindset.
Will OKC be able to close out games down the stretch? That’s an area where young teams can struggle. The Thunder were a bottom-5 team in clutch win percentage last season.
They might be careful with Chet, who already has had a foot injury.
They might be cautious with SGA, who means everything to this franchise.

The Thunder started to rumble last season, but the real storm might be a ways off.

Final prediction: We expect to hear the Thunder roaring in the night. Over 44.5 wins.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves — 44.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

A healthy KAT, the next level for Ant-Man — and worked out kinks from last season.

After dominating with team USA this summer, Anthony Edwards seems poised to take another leap to true NBA stardom. Superstardom? Honestly, wouldn’t rule it out. Ant has the tools and the moxie to make it happen.
It’s no secret that KAT has been injury-prone, playing more than 50 games just once over the last four years. But when he’s out there, Towns stays ballin’, giving the Wolves a second multi-level offensive dimension that’s glaringly missing without him.
A full season of professional Mike Conley running the point and setting up this offense. Conley’s arrival to Minnesota helped Rudy Gobert out tremendously.
The Twin Towers fit with Gobert and Towns was unsurprisingly unideal for much of the little time they played together, but now they have had time to evaluate and get comfortable.
Naz Reid (t-shirt All-Star!) got paid and is a reliable and flexible player that Chris Finch can use in any lineup.
Stability within after the rockiness of last season. Remember when Kyle Anderson and Gobert threw down? Sometimes great adversity only makes you stronger in the end. (Remember Jimmy vs. Spo in 2022?)
Speaking of Kyle Anderson, he’s a solid role player. The same goes for Jaden McDaniels who has glowing potential.
Remember the name: Leonard Miller.

This is a well-balanced roster with a good mix of vet experience and young-gun talent.

What’s the case for the Under?

KAT’s injury history, Mike Conley’s age and the still awkward fit between Towns and Gobert — ya know, some $71 million in annually salary.

Conley just turned 36 years old with 16 seasons of point guard miles under his belt. It’s fair to wonder if the wheels could fall off.
KAT has had one healthy season in the last four. At some point, it just is what it is.
The twin towers lineups are not ideal for maximizing Ant-Man’s talents, clogging the driving lanes and minimizing the spacing on the floor.
There is not a crazy amount of depth or shooting here. Spacing and having options are such a key component to today’s game.

Other teams in the West got decidedly better, gaining supreme talent. The Wolves added Shake Milton and Troy Brown Jr.

Final prediction: We believe in Ant-Man too much to fade. Over 44.5 wins.

1. Denver Nuggets — 52.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

His name is Nikola Jokic. He is also known as The Joker. Some call him Big Honey.

Jokic is the current best player in the game atop the player pyramid, a walking triple-double and ridiculously uncanny passer. He takes and makes the most absurd shots. Jokic is a flat-out unbelievable and outrageous player.
The two-man game between The Joker and The Blue Arrow. Jamal Murray proved once again that his game has another dimension when the stakes are the highest. They eased him back in last year and he might be ready for more this year.
Aaron Gordon was miscast in Orlando as a No. 1 guy, but he’s a fantastic No. 3 / No. 4 option and a perfect complimentary player to have around Jokic.
Michael Porter Jr.’s 3-point shot is still basically unguardable, sniping from atop the tower.
KCP’s perimeter defense and corner 3-point shooting were a key element to Denver’s championship run.
Christian Braun, who Michael Malone trusted in the playoffs (!!), will see more minutes with Bruce Brown gone. Braun could end up being a offensive upgrade.
Zeke Nnaji just signed a four-year, $32 million extension, signaling that not only is Nnaji in Denver’s future plans, but he should see an uptick in minutes this season.
Rookie Julian Strawther looked legit in the preseason. A sharpshooter from Gonzaga, Strawther might be ready to contribute right away. Fellow rookie Hunter Tyson also looked good in the preseason, and another rookie, Jalen Pickett from Penn State, is yet another youngin’ that people are high on.

The continuity and togetherness here is unmatched.

What’s the case for the Under?

Championship hangovers are real.

The Nuggets will become the hunted.

Bruce Brown is gone to Indiana. He was a swiss army knife for Michael Malone. Jeff Green is gone to Houston. The depth here won’t be the same.
Have you heard this one before? The West got better. And the Nuggets did lose key pieces to their championship run.
The backup big man situation is still… a LOT of DeAndre Jordan…
How much will Michael Malone trust the youngin’s? How much will they produce throughout the course of a full season?
The Nuggets will have the long game very much in mind, playing for another deep playoff run into June to defend their title.

Chasing wins in the regular season might not be in the cards. Remember how rough they looked over the last month of last season?

Final prediction: We are banking on Denver taking the regular season with a grain of salt. Under 52.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets - 7:30pm

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors - 10:00pm on TNT

Season Preview Division by Division

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