The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Detroit Pistons — 27.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Cade Cunningham played just 12 games last season, so it’s difficult to take too much of last season into account with the Pistons. They didn’t stand a chance without Cade.

A healthy Cade with a chip on his shoulder. He’s the engine to the Pistons offense.
Detroit’s offense without Cade last season featured a ton of Bojan Bogdanovic, who was still able to shoot 41.1 percent from 3 on six attempts per game as the team’s No. 1 option.
Jaden Ivey started the most games for the Pistons last season at 73. Ivey’s speed and unselfishness have translated nicely to the NBA.
No. 5 overall pick Ausar Thompson is a two-way athlete, exactly what the Pistons needed.
Jalen Duren looked like a double-double machine last year as a rookie. James Wiseman has already looked world’s better in Detroit than he ever did in Golden State. Sometimes the opportunity presented can be everything.
The Pistons added shooting in Joe Harris and veteran leadership with Joe Harris and Monte Morris. Morris is a professional point guard who started 74 games for a 48-win Nuggets team two years ago, averaging 4.4 assists in 30 mins per game.
Beef Stew and Bags! Isiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley III pose an interesting frontcourt pairing.
Killian Hayes has been the talk of camp and the preseason. Somebody check on KOC!

Dwane Casey is out and Monty Williams and his six-year, $78.5 million contract is IN. The Pistons must really believe in Monty.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Pistons haven’t won more than 23 games since 2018-19.

This team is extremely young and will focus on player development.
Detroit had a not so great showing in Summer League.
They didn’t cash in on Bogdanovic at last year’s deadline, which was surprising, but this year could be a different story. He’s the veteran asset that other teams will want.
Somebody is going to have to be the punching bag of the Central division.

The Pistons won 17 games last season. Can they really win 11 more than that?

Final prediction: Detroit is a year away. Under 27.5 wins.

4. Chicago Bulls — 37.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Bulls were a good team for the last three months of the season with a lot of momentum going after the All-Star break, rocking a 14-9 record after All-Star and the No. 1 defense after January 1st.

Crunch time was an issue in Chicago all of last season. The Bulls held the 4th-worst clutch record in the NBA at 15-23 after being 4th-best and 25-16 the season prior with all of DeRozan’s late-game heroics. If they turn their crunch time issues around, more wins will follow.
DeRozan is still the grand master of the mid-range. A lost art that he has perfected.
When LaVine’s 3-point shot is falling through, the Bulls thrive. In the 33 games last season that LaVine shot better than 37 percent from 3, the Bulls were 27-6. In all other games, the Bulls went 13-36.
The Bulls are actually basking in continuity — this will be the third full season of DeRozan, LaVine, Vooch, Pat Williams, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu all playing together.
Pat Willy joined Vooch as an 82-game Iron Man last season and constantly guarded the opposing team’s best player. And yet, Billy Donovan did not always trust him during the game’s most crucial moments. Pat-Pat still goes through too many stretches of bewildering unaggressive-ness. But the talent is there.
Alex Caruso, fresh off a 1st-team All-Defense selection, will have additional defensive-minded players in Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig, who can also provide much-needed 3-point shooting and floor spacing.
Coby White got better last season and showed flashes in the preseason, big hair is back and everything!
Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Artuas Karnisovas has said that changing their shot profile will be a priority going into this season. 3-pointers and free throw attempts. The Bulls attempted the fewest 3s in the league last season, shooting 15 less 3s per game than league-leading Golden State. They were also bottom-5 in free throws attempted. They were at a numbers disadvantage.
Dalen Terry, the Bulls No. 18 pick in the 2022 draft, played in just 38 games and averaged only 5.6 minutes last year. Terry remains an unknown at this point, but perhaps we will find out.

The Bulls continually put off their full-on rebuild. What’s another year?

What’s the case for the Under?

Teams in the East loaded up, and the Bulls added Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig.

How much does DeRozan have left in the tank?
If things start slow and choppy, they could finally decide to pull the plug and blow it up.
It may just not happen for Pat Williams. He might just be an inconsistent and unassertive player.
What surprises could we actually have in store here? Do we not know exactly what this team is?

The ghost of what this team could have been with Lonzo lingers within.

Final prediction: This feels like a .500 team. Over 37.5 wins.

3. Indiana Pacers — 38.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Pacers are fresh off being a Young Surprise Team last year, winning 35 games after having a preseason Over/Under of just 23.5 wins.

Indiana was also on pace to win even more games but had the wheels fall off when Haliburton missed time with an injury. On Jan. 12, the Pacers were 23-19, the sixth-best record in the East, and on pace for 45 wins. (They lost 9 of the next 10 games, toast without Haliburton.)

With Haliburton in the preseason, the Pacers have showed more crisp ball movement and spacing, vivacious energy and stout 3-point shooting. They are unselfish and look for assists.
The talent that is Benedict Mathurin, who had an excellent rookie season as a 6th-man gunner, 17 points per game off the bench. Mathurin stays getting to the basket with a relentless attack.
Myles Turner got paid, signing a well-deserved extension back in January, finally removing him from the forever trading block. Turner played 62 games, his most since 2019-20. And he took his scoring up a big level to 18 points a night while remaining top 5 in the NBA in total blocks.
Bruce Brown is the exact type of plug-and-play into any lineup type of player with defensive chops that the Pacers needed.
The Pacers also traded two future 2nd-round picks to the Knicks for Obi Toppin. Toppin’s biggest strength is his transition rim-running game, which should fit seamlessly and truly be unleashed here with Haliburton running Indiana’s top-flight fast break arsenal.
Two first-round picks include Jarace Walker at No. 8 overall and Ben Sheppard at No. 26. Walker is a 6-foot-8 240-lb defensive tank from Houston and Sheppard is a 22-year-old 6-foot-6 sharpshooter from Belmont.

Rick Carlisle previously was not a coach known for utilizing rookies, but perhaps Mathurin’s success last season will persuade him give Walker and Sheppard a real shot.

What’s the case for the Under?

If Haliburton goes down at any point like he did last year, the ship will start to sink.

The Buddy Hield situation is not a great start. If he’s moved, they will miss his reliable 3-point shooting.
Will Myles Turner be as motivated after getting his extension and finally being off the trading block?
Will Rick Carlisle trust the young guys, or was last year an outlier in that regard?
Defensively, can they get enough stops?

Final prediction: We are ALL-IN on this Pacers team. Over 38.5 wins.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers — 50.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Cavs were an excellent regular season team last year, winning 51 games behind the No. 1 defense and a top-10 offense, good for the 2nd-best net rating in the league.

Cleveland has a star-studded backcourt in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, providing 50 points and 12 assists per game last year. Staggering Mitchell and Garland gives the Cavs a main scorer and facilitator on the court all night long.
And on the inside, the Cavs have the Block Brothers, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, forever roaming the paint and protecting the rim, the backbone to that No. 1 defense in the league a season ago.
There is more help here offensively, especially in the shooting department, with the acquisitions of Max Strus and Georges Niang. Strus and Niang can be that missing stretch 4 that can knock down the 3-ball that the Cavs were missing.
Don’t sleep on Ty Jerome, who had a very underrated season for the Warriors last season.
Emoni Bates looked good in the preseason.
This team plays with joy and togetherness and has a strong foundation of young continuity built in.

The Cavs will be motivated with a bad taste in their mouth after last year’s first-round playoff exit / shellacking handed to them by the Knicks.

What’s the case for the Under?

Did the Knicks put together the blueprint for how to stop this Cavs team?

Other teams atop the East got decidedly better, making big moves. (i.e. Dame and Holiday.)
Can the Cavs replicate last season’s No. 1 defense with the undersized backcourt of Mitchell and Garland?
Ricky Rubio is out for personal reasons for an undermined amount of time.
There are some overall depth questions here.

Perhaps the Cavs will prioritize experimenting in the regular season, knowing that their true judgement comes in the postseason.

Final prediction: This team feels destined to roll in the regular season. Over 50.5 wins.

1. Milwaukee Bucks — 53.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Dame D.O.L.L.A.’s arrival to Milwaukee means both Giannis and Dame get to play with their best teammates ever.

Giannis paired with Dame is going to be a LETHAL 2-man game.
The Bucks previous late-game offense problem should be solved with Dame Time.
Giannis and Brook Lopez are the ideal big-man rim-protecting frontcourt to have behind Dame. (Speaking of Brook Lopez, Robin is in Milwaukee now, too, so the Lopez Bros are reunited!)
A healthy Khris Middleton would be a boon. Middleton has not looked like himself since going down in the 2021-22 playoffs.
Bobby Portis (2-time t-shirt All-Star!) is the 6th man you can rely on.
Having Jae Crowder from the jump should help the wing defense.
Marjon Beauchamp had a stellar preseason. The Bucks put a lot of trust in Beauchamp when they moved Grayson Allen in the Dame trade.
Don’t sleep on Malik Beasley getting hot from 3. He’s very capable of having a microwave game with 5+ made 3-pointers.
No more Coach Bud. It was time to move on. New head coach Adrian Griffin could be the new blood needed to get to this group.

The Bucks (and in particular Giannis) will be extremely motivated after getting embarassed by the Heat in the first round.

What’s the case for the Under?

There could be an adjustment period for new the personnel and the new coaching to get familiar with one another.

Swinging for the fences with Dame depleted the depth here. This is not a deep roster.
There are kind of a lot of eggs in Jae Crowder’s basket to be a stout wing defender on a nightly basis.
Will we get back the old Khris Middleton? He has yet to look the same after his last injury. Not everybody gets it back.
Milwaukee will have an emphasis on the postseason and will probably tinker in the regular season to find what works with this group, especially offensively.
Coach Bud did do some tinkering in the regular season, but he also had the regular season formula down pretty well.
New head coach Adrain Griffin already ran assistant coach and beloved Terry Stotts out of town!?

Final prediction: The Terry Stotts drama is enough for us to go Under 53.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets - 7:30pm

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors - 10:00pm on TNT

Season Preview Division by Division

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