The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Brooklyn Nets — 37.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The VIBES, man.

Last season was all about moving on from another disastrous attempt to bring superstar talent to Brooklyn, and now this Nets team is free at last, FREE AT LAST.

The new-look Nets were frisky after the trade deadline as Mikal Bridges blossomed as the team’s No. 1 option with the highest offensive freedom and usage of his career.
What if… what if Ben Simmons was healthy and played good basketball again? He actually did look promising in the preseason!
Spencer Dinwiddie’s return to Brooklyn went mostly under the radar. From March 1 to the end of last season, Dinwiddie averaged 16 points and 10 assists per game.
Cam Johnson inked a 4-year, $108 million contract extension after averaging a career high in points and minutes per game in his 25 games with a Nets jersey on.
Scoring machine Cam Thomas. People forget that around the trade deadline there was a three-game stretch where Cam Thomas went absolutely BANANAS, scoring 44, 47 and 43 points in consecutive games.
Offseason additions include Lonnie Walker, Darius Bazley and Dennis Smith Jr. Both Walker and DSJ had respective bounce-back seasons last year in LA and Charlotte.
Brooklyn had back-to-back first-round picks: No. 21 Noah Clowney from Alabama and No. 22 Dariq Whitehead from Duke. Clowney is a 6-foot-10 versatile defender who should help with the Nets rebounding and Whitehead is a 6-foot-7 athletic wing also known for his intensity on defense.
Speaking of, the Nets should have a strong, switchable defense.
There is no reason to tank here. Brooklyn’s pick is going to Houston, unprotected.

Don’t underestimate a full season of good vibes. The atmosphere around Barclays is going to be so much more relaxed.

What’s the case for the Under?

It’s the Nets. They’ve gone Under in three out of the last four years. And that was with KD and Kryie.

Is Mikal Bridges really a No. 1 option? His numbers shot up because of all those shots per game.
Can the offense hang with teams that have a lot of firepower?
Can they handle teams with bruising size inside?
Counting on Ben Simmons… does not have a good track record of coming through.

The Nets are a candidate to trade some of the current redundancy on the roster. Other teams would love have to have a Royce O’Neal or DFS.

Final prediction: 37.5 feels like a sharp line. Because of the vibes, give us the Over 37.5 wins.

4. Toronto Raptors — 37.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Raptors are notorious for overachieving, especially when their expectations are low.

Pascal Siakam shined in the midst of a career year last season, averaging his most points and assists per game while playing the most minutes per game in the league. He did not make All-NBA, but he was an All-Star for the second time in his career. And it sure seems like Masai has tried lighting a fire under him going into this year.
Scottie Barnes is primed for a bounce back after a bit of a sophomore slump. Expectations are everything. And so is opportunity.
OG Anunoby has survived all of the trade talks (thus far). He will be motivated to prove his worth and will have more responsibility with FVV gone.
Dennis Schroder is here now. Schroder was the MVP of FIBA, helped the Lakers a ton last season and let’s also not forget that he was very much involved in the Thunder’s Young Surprise Team of 2019-20, putting up 19 points per game in 30 mins off the bench, nearly winning 6th Man of the Year.
Jakob Poeltl in The 6 for a full season means the Raptors will have a true center from the jump. Precious Achiuwa was injured for a lot of last season.
No. 13 overall pick Gradey Dick from Kansas has been a winner on every level. The Raptors need his shooting.
Otto Porter Jr. was a complete non-factor last season, playing just eight games due to injury. OPJ can contribute to winning basketball.

Perhaps new head coach Darko Rajakovic can unlock a half-court offense for the Raptors, an area that has plagued them for years.

What’s the case for the Under?

A master of the retool, Masai has never done a full rebuild. Could it be time? He has Scottie for the foundation and Siakam and Anunoby would be prized trade chips.

The vibes on media day sure seemed ominous. Not the best start.
An unproven head coach in Darko Rajakovic, who already appears not on the same page as his players. His hiring alone could suggest that a rebuild is on the way…
No more FVV leaves a hole in terms of leadership and offensive guiding. VanVleet to Schroder is a downgrade.
Can this team ever find a good half-court offense?

The Raptors first-round pick goes to the Spurs from last year’s Poeltl trade, but it is top-6 protected… so they might eventually shut it down to try to keep it.

Final prediction: The threat of blowing it up is too severe for us this time around. Under 37.5 wins.

3. New York Knicks — 45.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Knicks have a solid foundation of continuity, returning nine of their top 10 from last season in terms of games played and win shares.

Jalen Brunson transformed this offense last season and became the newest King of New York. The Knicks’ offense was so much more organized and free-flowing.
A motivated Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, forever trying to win the approval of the city and Thibs.
Immanuel Quickley’s bench output helped put the Knicks over the top on many occasions last year. His 3-point shooting and playmaking spark were vital to Knicks Ws. After All-Star, Quickley averaged 21-4-4 and his defense took a major step forward.
A full season of Josh Hart’s do-everything services. The Knicks were at their best after acquiring Hart at the trade deadline, closing the season strong for the second straight year, winning 20 of 30 games while rocking the No. 2 offense in the league.
A solid frontcourt duo of Mitchell Robinson, a.k.a. Mitchell Blockinson and the still vastly underrated Isaiah Hartenstein, coming off an all 82-game Iron Man season.
Donte DiVincenzo brings in additional shooting and rebounding from the guard position.
Thibs loves to try to eek out every possible win, sometimes to the detriment to his team (a.k.a. running his guys into the ground), but you would think he’s trying to cash the Over on wins.

The Knicks got a taste last season, their first playoff series victory in forever. They should be hungry for more.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Knicks and high expectations do not have the best history.

Sometimes Thibs runs his teams and players into the ground. And Year 4 Thibs? He tends to wear out his welcome.
The Knicks might try to experiment some in the regular season to find the right potions for the postseason.
The top of the East got decidedly better with the Bucks and Celtics making major moves.
Will there be enough 3-point shooting here? That’s an area where the Knicks struggled for the majority of last season.
Can Brunson and Quickley replicate their breakout seasons offensively?
No more Obi Toppin will be a detriment to the transition (and power dunking) game.

It almost feels like things have been running a little too smooth for the Knicks lately…

Final prediction: We like to bet on continuity. Over 45.5 wins.

2. Philadelphia 76ers — 47.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Two years ago when Ben Simmons sat out, and before the Sixers got Harden, this team was good and ended up winning 51 games.

The Sixers still have the reigning MPV in Joel Embiid, who probably now more than ever just wants to go out there and hoop. Embiid is an absolute wrecking ball in the regular season.
Tyrese Maxey keeps getting better. How high can he go? Maxey’s continued ascension might overcome a missing Harden completely. The ball being in Maxey’s hands more will be a good thing. The Sixers numbers last season with Embiid and Maxey on the floor with Harden off were insane, +13 points per 100.
There is always the possibility that Harden shows up and just plays… how else is he going to get paid? How else is he going to prove his worth for his last contract in the league?
Melton next to Maxey more could be the better backcourt combo anyway. Melton’s defense is world’s better than Harden’s.
Tobias Harris… sometimes he shows up when Philly needs him most.
There are some fresh-faced vets in Philly to round out the roster in Pat Bev, Danny Green and Dewayne Dedmon.
A flier on Mo Bamba. Why not? Maybe he just needed to get to Philly for Embiid to show him the way.

No more Doc. Nick Nurse is widely regarded as a tremendous X’s and O’s guy who is always prepared.

What’s the case for the Under?

If worst comes to worst… Embiid is beyond frustrated and asks to be traded. (Somebody check on Chris Ryan.)

Harden could always show up and put on the fat suit and try to really sabotage this ship. He’s proven to be pretty good at that.
There is the possibility that the vets picked up here are found to be washed.
If Embiid misses any time… the Sixers have been able to stay afloat without him in recent years, but if they also don’t have Harden…
No more Doc. He was a good regular season wins head coach. And an adjustment period might be needed to get used to a new head coach in Nick Nurse. Is he really a Philly guy?

The vibes are just not good, man.

Final prediction: We believe too much in what we saw two years ago without Simmons and before Harden. Over 47.5 wins.

1. Boston Celtics — 55.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Perhaps the roster shakeup is the breath of fresh air that the Celtics needed.

Marcus Smart, Time Lord and Malcom Brogdon are out, but Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis are IN. Holiday is a better playmaker than Smart (and arguably a better defender as well) and Porzingis just had his best season yet in D.C. and looked fantastic in the preseason.
The J-Team will have their best spacing yet. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the rare durable, dynamic wing duo. Could Tatum’s MVP season be loading?
Brown got paid big (BIG) money this summer. Maybe that will ease the previous tension. Also having Smart out of the locker room. And Grant Williams, too, for that matter.
A bigger role for Derrick White. White is regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA. The Celtics will need him to step up more than ever.
Payton Pritchard was sniping in preseason. He got his money as well. Pritchard could be gunning for 6th man of the Year, trying to keep it in Boston.
Don’t sleep on a few of the under-the-radar pickups. Oshae Brissett and Lamar Stevens can play. We liked what we saw from Delano Banton in Toronto.
Head coach Joe Mazulla will have some help this season with assistant coaches by his side, most notably Sam Cassell. Jeff Van Gundy was also hired as a senior assistant.

After how they went out to the Heat last year, Tatum and Brown feel like they have something to prove.

What’s the case for the Under?

The overall team continuity is out the window. The Celtics are now without 4 of the top 8 players in minutes played last year, an ECF team that was one win away from The Finals.

The previous heart and soul of the team in Marcus Smart is gone. Who will be the hard-nosed leader?
This team is razor THIN. What happens if and when Horford and Porzingis miss time?
Horford is 37 and Holiday will turn 34 next summer.
There is LOT of pressure on Joe Mazz to deliver results this season.

The Celtics still do not have a true table-setting starting point guard. And their 6th Man of the Year, Brogdon, who handled a lot of those duties is gone.

Final prediction: This number is too high for the possibility of an injury to derail it. Under 53.5 wins.

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Season Preview Division by Division

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