01-18-21 NBA Blog Train MLK Day
“We cannot walk alone.” — Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
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Magic at Knicks +2 UNDER 205.5
We started MLK day by locking in this Under 205.5 in the Monday matinee Noon tipoff.
Over their last six games, the Magic have averaged 98 points per game (disregarding their last game against the Nets) and the Knicks have averaged 97, so taking the Under here was a no brainer. Did we mention that it started at Noon on a Monday?
Sure enough, both teams struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket. The Magic and Knicks combined to start the game 4-of-19 from 3. Not only were shots not going in and constantly rattling out, but the overall pace was soo slow. They were grinding out the shot clock on almost every possession. Words like “sloppy” and “slog” and phrases like “painful to watch” and “not a fun game” are exactly what you want to hear when you have the Under.
The score was 19-13 after the 1st quarter and 47-38 at the half. This was one of the most Pure Locks.
The Magic trailed by 14 points one minute into the 4th quarter, but this 911 three-pointer by T-Ross gave the Magic their first lead since the opening minutes. Down the stretch, Aaron Gordon went cold and the Knicks hung on to win despite shooting 18.5 percent on three-pointers (5-of-27) and missing 10 free throws.
Knicks 91, Magic 84.
Points in the paint: Knicks 42, Magic 26.
The Magic have lost 6 games in a row.
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Timberwolves at Hawks -7.5 UNDER 228.5
Taking the Under on MLK day makes a lot of sense considering the games start earlier than usual, throwing players out of their normal routines. But the T-Wolves and Hawks have a recent history of going Over, going WAY Over: The two meetings last year between them saw final scores of 125-113 and 127-120. Furthermore, in this last three games against Minnesota, Ice Trae has scored 36, 37 and 38 points. So we locked in this Over 228.5 which was immediately a regrettable decision.
Neither team scored for the first two minutes of the game, not what you want to see anytime you have the Over. We still liked the pace, quick shot attempts and a lot of transition opportunities in the fast break. But neither team could take care of the basketball. The Hawks coughed up a ridiculous 26 turnovers while the T-Wolves weren’t much better with 18.
Also, contrary to the first game, when you have the Over, you do not want to hear the T-Wolves offense described as sloppy and having no consistency or rhythm.
So yeah, this one was an Anti Lock.
But at least we got a…
De’Andre Hunter power dunk! 3.1 out of 5 rating.
Hawks 108, T-Wolves 97.
Three Hawks with 20+ points: Hunter (25), Capela (23) and Ice Trae (20).
In his homecoming, the Ant-Man was a little over anxious (5-of-16 shooting), but at least Ryan Saunders played him 30 minutes!
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Spurs -1.5 at Blazers Over 227
Seeing the MLK Day theme of Unders start 2-0, there was still no way we could pull the trigger on a Blazers Under, even with the news that C.J. is out at least a week. (Update: It’s a small hairline fracture in his foot and he’s set to miss at least 4 weeks. :/ ) If anything, we thought about taking the Over which ultimately pulled through and would have been a Comeback Lock.
Spurs 125, Blazers 104.
The Spurs outscored the Blazers 38 to 22 in the 4th quarter.
Four Spurs scored 20+ points: Aldridge (22), Gay (21), Mills (21) and DeRozan (20).
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Suns at Grizzlies +5.5 Under 217
The first game for the Suns in a week due to the safety protocols + the Grizz #4 defense in the NBA + the Suns #28 in Pace + the early MLK day start = we had to take this Under!
Three minutes into the game, the scoreboard read: 3-2. We were already feeling good about this one. Javon Carter came in off the bench and hit some 3’s, but it was minimal damage. The Suns led 24-18 at the end of the first quarter, on pace for 168 total points and a 71% chance for our Under to hit according to the Action Network app.
The Suns lead increased to 10 points, but then the Grizz came out of hibernation, led by none other than their fearless leader, Ja Morant, playing in his second game back from his ankle injury that was supposed to cause him to miss up to 5 weeks. (Ja missed 18 days.) It was Memphis who took a 4-point lead into halftime. The Under was still looking good, now on pace for 200 total points, but the Grizz 34-point second quarter did raise our eyebrows. As did the possibility of this close game going into OT, something you want to avoid at all costs if you have the Under.
It was tied 98-98 with a little over a minute remaining, so we were a little bit nervous. That’s when Ja Morant knifed through the lane and kicked it out to Grayson Allen who knocked down a corner 3. On the other end, Book missed a running lay up off the glass, but Deandre Ayton was right there for the put-back jam. A 1-point game with less than 50 seconds left — that’s when we remembered Ja’s crunch time power dunk on Aron Baynes in Phoenix last season. Right on cue, Ja drove left passed Ayton after the switch and scooped a lay-up in off the glass. Not but four seconds later, Ja drew a charge on Chris Paul to seal it. No OT and our Under hit, although it did get a little dicey at the end, so we’ll call it a Solid Lock.
Ayton baseline reverse power dunk!
Grizzlies 108, Suns 104.
The Grizzlies went 4-4 without Ja and have currently won five in a row, sitting at an all too familiar 8th in the West.
It should be noted that the Suns were without Dario Saric, Jalen Smith and Damian Jones. That left Monty Williams no choice but to play Frank Kaminsky 13 minutes. Kaminsky posted a -9 net rating.
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Bucks at Nets +4 Over 240
We were sure eyeing this Over before tipoff, but the high HIGH number of 240 ultimately scared us away. Instead, we rolled with a fun player prop that seemed like free money: Over 8.5 assists for James Harden. The Beard was really looking to pass and set up his teammates in that first game against the Magic on Saturday. Still in the honeymoon phase, we figured the case would be the same tonight. And it was! Harden had 6 assists at halftime, and a dime to DeAndre Jordan for a dunk before the end of the 3rd quarter sealed our player prop win. Harden only needed three quarters for 9 assists and The Beard finished with 12 on the night.
Points were flying out of the gate and we were wishing we had taken Over 240, however, the second quarter was a completely different story when the points stalled out. Brooklyn led 57-56 at the half. The rest of the way was a scoring bonanza! 70 combined points in the 3rd and 65 in the 4th. They ended up going Over 240 after all.
The actual game (if you’re into that sort of thing) between these two Eastern Conference contenders was a freakin’ rollercoaster.
The Beard completed the game-winning rebound and assist to The Slenderman.
After an impressive defensive play on KD to give the Bucks a fighting chance at the very end, Middleton had a chance at a potential game-winning 3. Alas, she did not fall.
Nets 125, Bucks 123.
As you would expect, the Nets are currently playing their starters HEAVY minutes. It sounds like Kyrie might play in their next game on Wednesday in Cleveland.
The Bucks next game? Thursday night against the Lakers on TNT.
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Mavericks at Raptors -3.5 UNDER 222.5
We took the Mavs MoneyLine on this one because the Mavs owed us from yesterday when they lost to the Bulls and because they had THJ and Brunson back tonight.
The Raptors played Luka tough as hell. He was never able to get going and had one of his more underwhelming games: 15 points, 9 assists and 7 rebounds. (For a lot of players, this would be a solid game. For Luka, it’s a disaster.)
The Raptors outscored the Mavs 69-46 in the second half. The Mavs did have the lead in the 3rd quarter, so this one isn’t an Anti Lock, but a Pseudo Lock.
Raptors 116, Mavs 93.
The Raptors are picking up steam and have now won 3 in a row. Next up: the Heat twice at “home” and at Indiana twice for a back-to-back.
We have always been a fan of Porzingis ever since he burst onto the scene at The Mecca, breathing life and palpable excitement to MSG, but something that’s been magnified in our losing two straight Mavs bets: KP forces it a little bit too much.
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Pistons at Heat -6Push Over 215
Detroit racked up 36 points in the 1st quarter, the most Pistons points scored in a quarter this season, and they led by as many as 19.
The 3rd quarter, however, was dominated by the Heat 33-19 which was ultimately the difference.
Heat 113, Pistons 107.
A solid comeback win for the shorthanded Heat without Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. Bam scored 28 and Dragic scored 22. Kendrick Nunn had a nice game off the bench, 18 points and a +17 net rating.
Wayne Ellington (24 points) and Derrick Rose (21 points) were sure turning back the clock tonight.
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Rockets at Bulls +2 OVER 224.5
When you have the opportunity to include a man bun with a smile on the blog, you do it. Arcidiacono hit a deep 3 at the 1st quarter buzzer.
Tonight was Oladipo’s Rockets debut and he greeted an old friend in Thad Young with a hug after the two collided at the basket.
Bulls 125, Rockets 120.
Back-to-back wins for the Bulls after Billy D said they don’t know how to win.
Dipo and C-Wood combined for 62 points. The Houston duo we did not expect to see.
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Warriors +8.5 at Lakers Over 225.5
Coming into tonight, the Lakers had covered four straight games. We had backed the Lakers in each of those games, yet tonight we had a funny feeling. So we stayed away, and we were kicking ourselves for doing so when the Lakers had a 19-point lead in the 1st quarter. The Lake Show was ROLLIN’. So much so that when we took a look at the Live Lines, we gave some thought to the Lakers -19.5 for +175 odds. But we stayed away from that, too, and it’s a good thing we did.
The Warriors 3-ball started falling and Kelly Oubre Jr. had his best game of the season with 23 points and some very timely defense.
Steph was actually off from 3 tonight (3-of-12), but when the game was on the line…
AD got Steph’ed. (Welcome to the club, brow.)
LeBron had a good look at a potential game-winning 3 at the buzzer. Alas, she did not fall.
Warriors 115, Lakers 113.
The Warriors outscored the Lakers by 13 points in the 4th quarter! Another national TV comeback for the Dubs.
The fact that the Warriors can beat the Lakers with Steph scoring just 26 points is super encouraging.
LeBron and AD shot an identical 6-of-16 from the field.
All four Lakers losses have come at Staples Center.
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Only two games on Tuesday night: Thunder at Nuggets and Pelicans at Jazz.
We love this game!
