The 2021-22 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time to preview the season — division by division — asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

5. Houston Rockets

2021-22 Over/Under: 25.5 wins — 31% winning pct (last season winning pct: 24%)

What’s the case for the Over?

Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. really do become the backcourt of the future.

And the future is now.

Jalen Green looks as good as advertised. Green Light can shoot it, and he’s going to have plenty of opportunities to do so.
KPJ looks pretty damn good, too. We love that he said he wants to average 10 assists this season. Some guys just have an innate fire to fuck you up — this young backcourt duo has it.
Christian Wood was playing on an All-Star caliber level before his injury last season. Jae’Sean Tate brings the hustle and energy on D.
There are some vets sprinkled in: Daniel Theis, D.J. Augustin, Danuel House, Eric Gordon and fighting for his NBA life, Dante Exum. [Update: Exum has been waived.]
Alperen Sengun is an old-school big — a forgotten commodity in the league today. Kenyon Martin Jr. has the hops to power dunk and block yo shit. Josh Christopher is an athletic wing, a necessity in today’s game.

There is potential for the Rockets to be a Young Surprise Team which makes sense given that they have a young nucleus that fits well alongside each other.

What’s the case for the Under?

In the final 51 games of last season, the Rockets went 6-45.

The defense and overall muscle here is rather suspect. The Rockets lack size and strength.
The preseason showed some miscommunication issues. The sign of a young team.
Super young teams like this have trouble closing out games.

Towards the end of the season, Houston very well might embrace the tank.

The mutual decision to keep John Wall on the shelf already points to that likely plan.

Final Prediction: The Rockets will be fired up on League Pass often, and should be a really fun time, but it’s hard to trust them to pile up many W’s yet. Under 25.5 wins.

4. San Antonio Spurs

2021-22 Over/Under: 29.5 wins — 36% winning pct (last season winning pct: 46%)

What’s the case for the Over?

No more Aldridge + DeRozan = time to party for the Spurs’ youngin’s.

Keldon Johnson could be a star in the making. Guys learn a lot playing with Team USA.

Lonnie Walker IV might fully take off. He’s shown plenty of flashes in the pan.
Derrick White was injured a lot of last season. His shooting was missed, but he’s healthy now. Bryn Forbes sniping has also returned.
There is a lot of optimism surrounding 18-year-old rookie Josh Primo from the preseason after being heavily mocked on draft night.
Devin Vassell has vast potential, especially with his 6-10 wingspan as a defensive ace alongside Dejounte Murray. Dejounte is a defensive ACE.
As a last line of defense, Jakob Poeltl’s rim protection is lithe and flummoxing — 6th in the NBA in blocks per game a season ago.
Thad Young and Dougie McBuckets overachieved in Indy back in 2018-19.

The Spurs were actually taking a decent amount of 3s (for them) in the preseason.

There is no pressure down in San An.

What’s the case for the Under?

Without a proven star player, the Spurs are at a nightly disadvantage from a true talent firepower ceiling.

The Spurs lost 41.4% of their scoring from last season.
Calling the Spurs the White Walkers of the NBA has taken a new meaning. As in there are a lot of big white guys down here: Poeltl, Drew Eubanks, Jock Landale, Zach Collins and Luka Samanic. Ain’t nothing wrong with it, just happened to notice. [Update: Samanic, the 19th pick in the 2019 draft, has been waived.]
A lot of heavy minutes for some still mostly inexperienced players.

It’s been 25 years since the Spurs tanked for Timmy.

History loves to repeat itself.

Final Prediction: This number feels really low, but it’s not stopping us. Under 29.5 wins.

3. New Orleans Pelicans

2021-22 Over/Under: 38.5 wins — 47% winning pct (last season winning pct: 43%)

What’s the case for the Over?

Whenever he returns, Zion is still the most efficient paint-scorer in the game.

People have talked shit about Big Z gaining weight over the summer (and rightfully so), but the counter is what if that makes him even more difficult to stop near the basket?

Trey Murphy tha god! But seriously, T-Murph has looked like the perfect floor-spacer for the Pellies in Summer League and preseason. He’s comfortable out there and clearly has the 3-ball dialed in.
Brandon Ingram is fresh of back-to-back 23.8 points per game seasons. He’s going to have a lot more room to be the primary scorer with Zion out for the foreseeable future.
Jonas Valancuinas offers a stable and reliable rebounding interior presence. He can score as well.
Devonte’ Graham can get hot from 3.
Kira Lewis Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker both appear as though they’ve improved their games since last season. Either KLJ or NAW could take a leap. Or both.

Stan Van Gundy could not get through to this group, but Willie Green just might.

What’s the case for the Under?

The defense was a big problem for most of last season and the roster now looks… less equipped on that end.

Zion is still recovering from foot surgery this summer, hasn’t even yet resumed running or contact, and there is no doubt that he’s going to have to be eased back in. The injury concern level with him is unfortunately extremely high.
Willie Green is a first-time head coach, the third head coach of Zion’s 3-year NBA career. A new coach every year for these guys.
There is a lot of pressure down in ‘Nawlins to avoid another Anthony Davis catastrophe. Things are trending in the wrong direction.

The Pellies have hit the Under three years in a row and four out of the last five.

Final Prediction: Honestly, we didn’t really consider taking the Over here at all. Under 38.5 wins.

2. Memphis Grizzlies

2021-22 Over/Under: 41.5 wins — 51% winning pct (last season winning pct: 53%)

What’s the case for the Over?

Some teams are well prepared and play cohesively as a unit together.

The Grizz are absolutely one of those teams.

Ja Morant, the fearless leader of the Grizz, has a rare breed of explosiveness and moxie. He’s got an unwavering confidence that he’s going to get the job done. The Grizz feed off his energy. They embrace his fearlessness.
JJJ is healthy and ready to round out the perfect pair next to Ja.
Some have said that Dillon Brooks is the Grizz’s second-best player. Brooks did take his scoring up a notch in the playoffs. He can be streaky, but he always plays tough as balls.
There are shooters here in Desmond Bane and De’Athony Melton and defensive specialists in Brooks, Brandon Clarke and Melton again. Lineup flexibility? Check.
Jarrett Culver looked about as good as we have seen him look in the NBA in the preseason. That’s not saying much, but it’s something.
Rookie Ziaire Williams was a draft pick that was questioned at the time, but Williams showed promising shot-creation in the preseason, even against some starters.

Memphis has hit the Over three years in a row, and they don’t even have to win quite at the same pace as last season.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Grizz have overachieved two seasons in a row, so maybe they are due for some regression.

Valanciunas was a rock for the Grizz and he’s down in NOLA now putting down the beignets.
The one downside to how Ja plays is that it’s eerily similar to peak D-Rose. There are more scary plays than you’d like to see.
Can the shooters, Bane and Melton, replicate their stellar seasons from last year, the first time they pulled that off?

All of the offseason activity here indicates that Memphis has the long-game in mind.

Final Prediction: This one feels like a no brainer. Over 41.5 wins.

1. Dallas Mavericks

2021-22 Over/Under: 48.5 wins — 59% winning pct (last season winning pct: 58%)

What’s the case for the Over?

The Don. Wonderboy. LukaMagic.

Luka looks as smooth as ever, ready to roll from the jump this time — he was out of shape at the beginning of last season.

Porzingis actually had an offseason in which he wasn’t recovering from a major injury.
Reggie Bullock offers 3-and-D where Josh Richardson did not. THJ and DFS have a rapport with Luka after three seasons together now.
Say what you will about Jason Kidd, but maybe he will at least give Tyrell Terry and Josh Green a chance to play. [Update: Tyrell Terry has been waived. Guess he wasn’t the Seth Curry replacement after all.]
Moses Brown, could be something there. Not everybody puts up 20-20 games in the NBA.
Boban is shooting 3s now!?

The Mavs play in a weak division, getting to play the Rockets, Spurs and Pelicans often.

What’s the case for the Under?

God forbid (and please knock on ALL of the wood), but if Luka were to miss time, the Mavs would be in a most precarious situation.

Jason Kidd has a history of… not being a good head coach. While Rick Carlisle is regarded as one of the best in the biz.
There might not be enough ball-handling and shot-creation after Luka and Jalen Brunson.
KP could never get back to how he used to be, continuing to just be “the mannequin in the corner.”

This defense finished 20th last season.

Defense is widely considered Kidd’s weakness as a head coach.

Final Prediction: We realllllly don’t like to bet against Luka. Over 48.5 wins.

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Northwest season preview.

Southeast preview. | Central preview.

Atlantic preview. | Pacific division preview.

TUESDAY NIGHT is officially OPENING NIGHT!

Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks - 7:30pm

Warriors at Lakers - 10:00pm - (TNT)

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