The 2021-22 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time to preview the season — division by division — asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

5. Orlando Magic

Over/Under: 22.5 wins — 26.2% winning pct (last season winning pct: 25.6%)

What’s the case for the Over?

The Magic are the Young Surprise Team that nobody saw coming, the Young Surprise Team that Markelle Fultz tried to warn us about.

This team honestly loves each other. They flat out had fun at the end of last season and carried it into the preseason. That goes a longer way than you’d think.

Not since Penny Hardaway have the Magic had a guard with as much potential as Jalen Suggs. Suggs is on a mission to prove that the teams that passed on him royally fucked up and to keep on winning the same as he always has.
Fultz and Jonathan Isaac will return from their ACL injuries at some point. Perhaps they have been working on their jump shots.
Wendell Carter Jr. could have it all click in Year 4. Same for Mo Bamba who looked genuinely fantastic in the preseason.
Cole Anthony has the clutch gene. R.J. Hampton is electric. Chuma Okeke is Big Chum.
The Brothers Wagner!

The Magic only have to win one more game than they did last year when they were hit by an injury bug the size of Epcot and blew the team up at the trade deadline.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Magic are so very young and inexperienced. They also have a rookie head coach in Jamahl Mosley.

As a likely starter from the jump, Jalen Suggs is going to be the primary assignment for a lot of top defenders. That’s tough for any rookie.
When Fultz and Isaac return, it could throw a kink into the rotations. They also might not be as explosive as they used to be.
Robin Lopez could decide to never leave Disney World, riding Expedition Everest until the end of time.

Focusing more on player development and finishing with high lottery draft odds wouldn’t be a bad thing for Orlando at all.

Final Prediction: The Magic should be one of the more fun cellar dwellers. Under 22.5 wins.

4. Washington Wizards

Over/Under: 34.5 wins — 42% winning pct (last season winning pct: 47%)

What’s the case for the Over?

This is arguably the deepest Wizards roster from top to bottom in some time.

More importantly, Bradley Beal is currently still in D.C.

Blue Panda is a scoring machine, over 30 points per game two seasons in a row.
The newest Lakers castaways will be highly motivated and without the pressure of playing in LA with LeBron.
- Kuzma was once thought to have All-Star potential.
- Trez Harrell used to contribute so much more (in the regular season). 6th Man of the Year in 2019-20.
- KCP is a good perimeter defender, something the Wizards haven’t had.
Dinwiddie chose the Wizards and should be a good backcourt fit alongside Beal.
Love to see the Wiz still feeding Daniel Gafford down low in the preseason. Gafford always brings high-energy and hustle.
Thomas Bryant will return at some point (GM Tommy Sheppard says December), offering some additional size.
Aaron Holiday can’t be as bad as he was last year.

The Wizards only have to win one more game than they did last year, and they have 10 more games to do so.

What’s the case for the Under?

While the Wizards do have depth, they lack a punch in top-tier talent after Beal.

(And Beal himself could always ask out…)

First year head coach Wes Unseld Jr. right away has a tall order of managing a ton of guys with a wide range of personalities. The ex-Lakers might try to do too much.
Daniel Gafford duplicating the end of last season seems like a stretch since he won’t have Westbrook consistently feeding him dimes.
There aren’t many reliable two-way players on the roster. The Wiz might be forced into playing more super small-ball than you would like.

At the end of the day, the defense is probably still going to be a pretty big problem.

And the East has gotten a lot better.

Final Prediction: Deeper doesn’t always mean better. (That’s what she said. -Michael Scott) Under 34.5 wins.

3. Charlotte Hornets

Over/Under: 38.5 wins — 47% winning pct (last season winning pct: 46%)

What’s the case for the Over?

When healthy last season, Charlotte started out with a record of 25-23, on pace for 43 wins in an 82-game season.

This is the most unselfish team in the league, #1 in assist percentage last season, playing as a unit with all kinds of ball-movement.

The Hornets will be a force in transition with LaMelo leading the way and lobbing to numerous high-fliers.
There will be power dunks aplenty from Sky Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, Terry Rozier, newcomer Kelly Oubre and rookies Kai Jones and James Bouknight. Power dunks are momentum shifters!
More than just the best power dunker in the game, Miles Bridges took a leap last season. He was nearly a 40-50-90 guy with splits of 50% from the field, 40% from 3, and 87% on free throws.
Gordon Hayward is healthy entering the season (although he’s recently been in the protocols). Hayward is the key to unlocking everything for James Borrego. And hell, missing the preseason was probably a good thing so he couldn’t get hurt.
Charlotte was splendid in the clutch last season. Scary Terry’s specialty.
Jalen McDaniels might be a hidden gem.

The Hornets have hit the over three seasons in a row — assuming that in 2019-20 they would have won two out of the last ten games they never got to play.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Hornets got completely and utterly destroyed by the Mavs in their final preseason game, 127—59.

They couldn’t even break SIXTY. The worst loss in NBA preseason history.

The Hornets are still thin in the front court, and all of their supreme small-ball lineups last year with P.J. Washington at the 5 included Devonte’ Graham, but Graham is now down in ‘Nawlins eating jambalaya. Malik Monk is gone as well — out in La La Land with 360.
Hayward is currently healthy, but at this point, it’s fair to wonder for how long. The injury bug seems permanently attached to him.
The Hornets might be rather rookie reliant, needing Bouknight and Jones to log a lot of minutes and contribute right away.

It can be tough for Young Surprise Team Lightning to strike twice.

Final Prediction: This Hornets team will be so much fun they’ll create their own lightning. Over 38.5 wins.

2. Atlanta Hawks

Over/Under: 47.5 wins — 58% winning pct (last season winning pct: 57%)

What’s the case for the Over?

The Hawks seriously might have the deepest team in the entire league.

The Hawks can attack you from so many different directions. It’s a grand luxury to have so many weapons at your disposal and extreme lineup flexibility.

Trae Young and Co. had one of the highest free throw rates (4th) and one of the best free throw percentages (5th) last season. Getting free points is a good habit.
John Collins has improved every season and really started coming into his own in the playoffs. Collins has molded his game to fit nicely next to Clint Capela, the best rebounder in the league.
De'Andre Hunter has already transformed into a tremendous two-way talent on the wing.
Cam Reddish looked like THAT DUDE in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, only his fourth game back from injury since February.
Rookie Jalen Johnson gives them added bounce. Another super athlete who can also handle the ball.
Gallo in the 4th quarter is the closer the Hawks can count on, the Rooster in the clutch. Kevin Huerter did a great Red Velvet impression of the Rooster in that Game 7 against Philly.

The Hawks went 27-11 under Nate McMillian last year, and Nate Mac is calling the shots from Day 1 this time.

What’s the case for the Under?

High expectations for teams that just overachieved have a history of not boding well.

Because there are so many good players on this roster, there could be some discontent among some guys that think they should be getting more playing time. There are only so many minutes to go around.
The last couple of times that we have seen Trae Young on the court, he’s been banged up. And will the new free throw rule have an impact on him?
Atlanta was 29th in forcing turnovers last season, and there is some belief that their opponent 3-point percentage at 34.9%, third best in the NBA, was rather lucky.

The Hawks will be hunted and not take people by surprise, especially with Trae embracing the Villain role.

Final Prediction: There is too much firepower here for the Hawks not to soar. Over 47.5 wins.

1. Miami Heat

Over/Under: 48.5 wins — 59% winning pct (last season winning pct: 56%)

What’s the case for the Over?

As expected, Kyle Lowry to Bam has already been lethal in the preseason.

The Heat were 33-19 last season with Jimmy Beans in the lineup.

Tyler Herro looks poised to put last season behind him and to reclaim his bubble magic.
The defense with P.J. Tucker will be swarmy.
Victor Oladipo will return at some point and offer additional offense.
Not only did a lot of people overlook Gabe Vincent’s big performance for Nigeria against Team USA in that Olympics exhibition game, but a lot of people probably don’t even know who Gabe Vincent is.
Another lesser known player, Max Strus, is probably more known than Vincent from getting a lot of reps in last season when the Heat dealt with injuries and the protocols. Strus also drained a sudden-death game-winner at Summer League.
7-footer Omer Yurtseven from Turkey might also be a WHO HE!? character that you don’t know (yet).

The Heat were voted as having the best offseason. This roster does have a lot more stability throughout.

What’s the case for the Under?

There is a lack of depth here, especially while Oladipo remains out.

Speaking of Dipo, who knows when he will actually return.
The spacing, most notably in all P.J. Tucker lineups, could be an issue. Tucker can only camp out in the corner pocket for so long.
After Bam, the Heat are lacking a proven interior big who can really bang down low, counting a lot on Dewayne Dedmon and Kieff Morris. (And possibly Omer Yurtseven.)

It will be difficult to upgrade this roster too much during the season seeing as the draft pick cupboard here is completely barren.

Final Prediction: Kyle Lowry’s caboose strutting around South Beach = Over 48.5 wins.

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Northwest season preview.

Central preview. | Southwest preview.

Atlantic preview. | Pacific division preview.

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Warriors at Lakers - 10:00pm - (TNT)

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