The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. San Antonio Spurs — 29.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The constant theme here for the last 25 years: Where there is a Pop, there is a way.

His name is Victor Wembanyama. Maybe you’ve heard of him. It’s Wemby time down in San An. The 7-foot-4 French giant is the game’s most heralded prospect since LeBron and so far he looks every bit worth the hype. He’s going to be a defensive MENACE.
Off that notion, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Wemby is a fierce defensive backbone for a team that finished last in defensive efficiency last season. The Spurs can only go up on that side of the ball.
- Vassell got paid and might be the most underrated player in the league. Not for long. People will learn the name.
- Sochan’s hair, defense and rebounding are all as good as advertised. Even better, really. Not even Rodman himself could do a better Rodman impression.
Keldon Johnson struggled with his efficiency (45 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from 3, career-worst numbers) for large portions of last season as defenses were able to key all the way into the Spurs’ 23-year-old No. 1 option. Keldon eventually found his shot, making 44 percent of his 3s in March, and he did still average a career-high 22 points per game. He should have a lot more room to work this season.
Malaki Branham had some eye-popping games toward the end of the season as a 19-year-old rookie. Not only did Branham start 32 games for the Spurs, but he had 10 games of 20+ points. Nine of those occurred after the start of February.
Tre Jones played in the most games for the Spurs last season at 68, and he doubled his career average in points (12.9) and assists (6.6). Jones notched two triple-doubles during the last week of the season, including one against his hometown Minnesota Timberwolves.
Shout out to Zach Collins who played his most games in a season (63) since 2018-19. He also averaged a career-high in almost every statistical category, putting up 11-6-3 in 23 minutes a night. Collins just inked a two-year extension for $35 milly.
Shout out as well to 31-year-old Doug McDermott who shot above 40 percent from 3 for the sixth time in his nine-year career.
The Spurs picked up Cedi Osman in the offseason. Osman can shoot it and everybody likes him.

Despite having the second-worst offense in the league last season, the Spurs were top 5 in assists per game, a Pop staple. They were also No. 2 in points in the paint and top 5 in second-chance points.

What’s the case for the Under?

The Spurs will probably take their time with Wemby, easing him into things and being careful with the long game in mind.

In games without Wemby, the Spurs will probably look similar to how they did last season.
The 3-point shooting here as a whole is a question. Will they have enough shooting and spacing?
There is not much depth, either, lacking a lot of overall firepower and supreme talent throughout the roster.

The Spurs did have the worst net rating in the NBA last season.

Final Prediction: Pop + Wemby = Over 29.5 wins.

4. Houston Rockets — 31.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Going from Stephen Silas to Ime Udoka… there might not be a bigger jump to make at the head coaching position.

This team is going to have so much more structure and offensive direction, accountability and stability.
Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks are here. Say what you will about the price of this backcourt ($210 million, gulp) and the shooting (GULP), but they will bring veteran leadership and defensive intensity.
One of the crazier bellwether stats of the 2022-23 season: When Jalen Green played and scored 24+ points, the Rox were 16-17. When Green played and scored less than 24 points, the Rockets had a record of 4-39. JG4 will have so much more space this season.
Jabari Smith Jr. sure looked good in Summer League and preseason He kept improving last season, too. The Locksmith might be in store for a huge leap in Year 2.
Alperen Sengun. Al P took his scoring up a level last season with an increase in minutes played. His role as a facilitator continues to make him look like a Walmart Jokic. He is not afraid to try any pass. The higher the difficulty, the more he likes it.
The rookies. No. 4 overall pick Amen Thompson and No. 20 pick Cam Whitmore. Thompson’s speed jumps off the screen and so does Whitmore’s size.
A true defensive identity with Brooks, the Locksmith, Jae’Sean Tate and Tari Eason.
Jeff Green is back in H-Town, a vet’s vet with 15 years experience. (Oh snap, the Rockets have two J. Green’s)
Addition by subtraction: Kevin Porter Jr. is gone. His distractions and turnovers won’t be missed.

The Rockets were No. 1 in the NBA in 2nd-chance points last season and also the No. 1 offensive-rebounding team in the league.

What’s the case for the Under?

Sometimes the stench of losing lingers. The Rockets have won less than 23 games for three straight seasons.

An offensively challenged team added FVV and Dillon Brooks.
Brooks has talked so much trash that most of the league will be coming for him.
The Rockets have had a serious turnover problem that isn’t just going to vanish.
There are some vets here, yes, but this team is still LITTERED with youngin’s.

Could Ime Udoka be too hard-nosed for this group? There could be some clashing.

Final Prediction: The jump from Silas to Udoka and KPJ to FVV is enough for us. Over 31.5 wins.

3. Dallas Mavericks — 43.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Betting against Luka Doncic is always risky business. THE DON.

The offense with Luka and Kyrie will be there. This we know.
Seth Curry is back in Dallas. He’s the perfect shooter to have alongside Luka and Kyrie.
Rookie Dereck Lively looks like the perfect lob threat for Luka.
Another jump could be in store for Josh Green in Year 4.
Sophomore Jaden Hardy should see more minutes and opportunity.
Grant Williams is the type of player this roster needed. Somebody more than willing to do the dirty work.
The Mavs added some vets in the offseason: Kieff Morris, Derrick Jones Jr. and Richaun Holmes.
Dante Exum is in the D now, too. Exum supposedly fixed his 3-point shot in Euro ball.

Kyrie in Dallas… it’s the smallest market he’s played in since pre-LeBron Cleveland and could be the best recipe for him.

What’s the case for the Under?

Recently, betting against Kyrie has been extremely profitable.

Kyrie was already seen glaring at Grant Williams in the preseason.
If Luka were to ever miss an extended period of time, they would be toast.
Jason Kidd might have been a one-hit wonder of a good head coach in 2021-22.
Defensively… that’s the question with this team. Can they buy in on that side of the ball? When the Mavs had that great defense two years ago, Reggie Bullock and DFS were a huge part, but now they are long gone from the D.
Could there be too many guys? That can lead to disgruntled players and a bad vibes locker room.

Final Prediction: We really don’t like to bet against Luka, but Kyrie is an auto fade. Under 43.5 wins.

2. New Orleans Pelicans — 44.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

Two months into last season, the Pelicans were 18-8 and in 1st place in the Western Conference after a 7-game winning streak was capped off by Zion’s 360-windmill in garbage time against the Suns.

On Dec. 30, New Year’s Eve’s Eve, the Pelicans were 23-12 and still No. 1 in the West, tied at the top with the Denver Nuggets.

If unguardable Zion stays healthy for a full season. It’s a big IF, but before going down last year, Zion put up his 2020-21 All-Star numbers, averaging 26 points and 7 rebounds on 61 percent shooting. He even increased his assists to 4.6 per game. Big Z looked good in the preseason…
Health in general has not been on the Pelicans side. Brandon Ingram missed 37 games last year, too. Jose Alvarado missed time as well.
A motivated Brandon Ingram after being frustrated in FIBA ball with team USA. B.I. just wants to hoop.
With Zion and Ingram handling the majority of the load, things will open for CJ McCollum to be the No. 3 scorer and main facilitator.
Another leap could eventually be in store for Trey Murphy III after he returns from injury.
The Pels will have more defense with Dyson Daniels getting more minutes and more shooting with rookie Jordan Hawkins.
Speaking of defense: NOT ON HERB! Herb Jones defensive prowess is here.
Willie Green is a payers coach who will have his guys ready to go to war.

We’ve been burned by these Pelicans Overs so many times. They are due!

What’s the case for the Under?

There are just so many injury concerns.

Counting on Zion to be on the court is a really tough bet at this point.
Trey Murphy, Alvarado and Larry Nance are all already banged up…
This team is lacking a true starting point guard in a league that’s full of them.
This team feels kinda slow… lacking the speed of some other teams that will want to run and gun.
Is there enough 3-point shooting here? The Pelicans were bottom 5 in 3-point shooting last season.

We’ve been burned so many times by these Pels. A bad taste left in our mouth here.

Final Prediction: We thought we couldn’t quit Zion, but we have been burned too many times. Under 44.5 wins.

1. Memphis Grizzlies — 45.5 wins

What’s the case for the Over?

The Grizz have a great track record of exceeding expectations.

Ja getting to be around the team during his suspension helps considerably. And when he returns, Ja should be more than motivated to be on his best behavior and let his game do the talking.
Desmond Bane can take over while Ja is out. It’s Bane SZN.
Memphis has the last two Defensive Players of the Year in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart. This should be one of the best defenses in the league again, providing a strong foundation and a high floor from a wins perspective.
A full season of Luke Kennard’s 3-point shooting.
Ziaire Williams looked smooth and in control in preseason. The transition game here is always lethal and Williams will play a big part in that.
More playing time for David Roddy and Kenny Lofton. (The Thick Bros!)
There have been a few changes to the roster, yes, but there is also still a boatload of continuity and togetherness here.

Taylor Jenkins always maximizes the talent of his roster.

What’s the case for the Under?

Steven Adams season-ending knee surgery just before the season is a most ominous sign…

Not only is Ja out for the first 25 games, but there is no Tyus Jones here anymore, the previous Ja fill-in for years.
There is no more Dillon Brooks, either. For all of his faults, he was very much a part of the Memphis winning culture.
The backup point guard is… Derrick Rose? They will stagger Ja and Smart, but for 25 games while Ja is out…
Outside of JJJ and Aldama, this team is actually pretty small.
Brandon Clarke (torn Achilles back in March) won’t be back for several months. So this team is already banged up once again.

Ja is a third strike away from an even more serious suspension. And his reckless style of play always puts him at risk for a major injury.

Final Prediction: We were leaning Under and the Adams injury solidifies it. Under 45.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets - 7:30pm

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors - 10:00pm on TNT

Season Preview Division by Division

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